Iranians Confound U.S. Exit Strategy

 

“WASHINGTON -- For weeks, President Trump had been laying the groundwork to declare victory in the Iran war should Tehran fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even floating the idea privately to senior aides that he's willing to walk away without a nuclear deal, U.S. officials said.

 

But that scaled-back objective became more difficult when Iran insisted Saturday on its highest price yet from the U.S. for permitting the free flow of traffic in the waterway, seeking billions of dollars in payments, the removal of American troops from the region and an end of the naval blockade, among other things.

 

This rapid chain of events suggests Trump's options for walking away from the conflict have again narrowed. Trump has repeatedly threatened -- and then backed away from -- a massive escalation of its bombing campaign. But the recent chaos in negotiations signaled Tehran is prepared for a long and grinding conflict.

 

"Iran's recent hard-line demands for reopening the strait make it increasingly difficult for the president to manufacture a face-saving off-ramp from the conflict," said Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

 

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group consulting firm, said, "The Iranians fully believe Trump wants out and is focused on opening the strait, which is why they are playing hardball."

 

Hanging over diplomatic talks since April has been the White House's ultimatum that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. Trump sought to include nuclear talks as part of broader negotiations with Iran, but those have proved too difficult, leading the White House in recent weeks to focus more on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Iran's ability to essentially choke off the waterway through sporadic missile and drone attacks has proved to be powerful leverage, stalling commercial traffic and roiling global oil markets.

 

Trump has declared repeatedly in recent weeks that the Strait of Hormuz was already fully open, but each of those promises has proved premature.

 

Now, with less than three months until the midterm elections and the price of gasoline still much higher than it was before the war started in late February, Trump, a Republican, has been looking for ways to tell the American public that the war is won.

 

In recent days, Trump told reporters that he was prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but was talked down by U.S. allies. He insisted that a deal was "imminent" although one hasn't materialized yet.

 

On Friday, the president on social media suggested victory was in hand even without a nuclear agreement, linking to an article declaring "Donald Trump Won the Iran War."

 

Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the U.S. would continue to pressure Iran to make long-term changes in its relationship with Washington: "And if not, that's fine, too, we're just going to keep on applying the pressure we can apply, and getting as much oil and gas out of the Middle East so that Americans can enjoy lower gas and energy prices."

 

"We're in the middle of the game," Vance said.

 

Tehran, which closed the waterway once the war began, has insisted that no American warships be allowed to traverse the waterway and has pushed to collect revenue from commercial vessels.

 

Washington has said it won't accept Iranian restrictions or tolls, U.S. officials said.

 

The prospects of a deal appeared to darken over the weekend when the United Arab Emirates said Iran launched a missile attack on one of its ships and a top Iranian official laid out a series of tough demands for allowing traffic through.

 

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the U.S. would need to permanently end the war, lift its naval blockade, withdraw its forces, remove all sanctions, free Iran's frozen assets, pay war reparations, end threats and insults, and stop military action against Iran's militia allies around the region before Iran would open the strait, according to a report by state news agency IRNA.

 

U.S. officials said Trump is patient and expected to ride out the latest diplomatic snarl, especially so long as gasoline prices remain where they are. The average price at the pump was $4.02 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA. That is up from $3.16 a year ago but down a bit from a week ago.

 

A White House official insisted that the U.S. completed all of its military objectives against Iran. Trump's focus now is securing the flow of the world's energy through the Strait of Hormuz, and he will keep military options on the table should Iran further target ships, the official said.

 

On the nuclear concerns, Trump has told senior aides privately in recent weeks that Tehran is likely unable to revive its work during his presidency after the U.S. destroyed three primary nuclear sites last year, the officials added.

 

U.S. intelligence capabilities would likely catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild those facilities or covertly build a bomb, the president has said in recent meetings, and he is confident the threat of more American attacks would serve as an enduring deterrent.

 

If the U.S. can keep the nuclear program in check and traffic resumes in the strait, then Trump is more likely to extend the current ceasefire indefinitely, the officials said. Trump also is expected to lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran fully reopens the strait, they added.

 

One major complication for the Trump administration is money. Iran is seeking billions of dollars in war reparations in addition to an agreement to unfreeze the country's assets around the world. Trump has said the White House wouldn't allow any taxpayer money to go to Iran, although a deal appears unlikely without the U.S. unfreezing some assets, possibly with conditions attached.

 

There also is a dispute about whether the U.S. should issue waivers to let Iran sell oil on the open market. The U.S. had agreed to the waivers last June as part of an interim peace agreement with Iran. That ceasefire fell apart after Iran attacked ships in the strait, and the U.S. reinstated sanctions on the Iranian oil trade.

 

Trump's recent comments indicate that he is looking for an exit.

 

The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports meant the Strait of Hormuz was "sort of open right now," he said Thursday, though the president acknowledged Tehran could still damage ships with missiles, drones and mines. He also has suggested Iran's buried uranium stockpile was a nonissue.

 

"We've already got the nuclear material, because it's so far underground," Trump said during July's summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. "Nobody's going to be able to get it except us."” [1]

 

1. Iranians Confound U.S. Exit Strategy. Ward, Alexander.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Aug 2026: A1.