Iran Sees A Path to Oust U.S. From Gulf

 

 

“Iran is vowing to bar U.S. Navy warships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz as part of an agreement to reopen the waterway, pressing its goal of curtailing America's decades-old military presence in the Persian Gulf.

 

Tehran's threat highlights the ascendance within the Iranian leadership of hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who have long sought the ouster of American forces from the region. Though Iran has taken a devastating military beating, its leaders now see an opportunity to use negotiations on ending the six-month war to dislodge the U.S. as the dominant power in the Persian Gulf.

 

Iranian officials have publicly made the threat amid negotiations with Oman, the sultanate on the strait's southern coast leading discussions with Tehran. U.S. officials have told mediators they won't accept Iranian restrictions or tolls on Hormuz traffic, one of several conflicts between Washington and Tehran that have delayed completing an agreement.

 

As a military matter, Iran is unlikely to be able to deny the U.S. Navy access to the Gulf if it decides to sail through the strait, analysts and former senior military commanders say. The Pentagon sent two Navy guided-missile destroyers through Hormuz in April at the height of the war.

 

But by laying out maximalist demands, Iran may be testing President Trump's appetite for resuming the war or for taking an off-ramp, even if it means not immediately contesting Iran's bid to block the U.S. from the Gulf.

 

No matter what Trump does, "the fundamental result is going to be significant Iranian de facto control over the strait," said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer now with the Atlantic Council, a Washington think tank.

 

The Trump administration would only accept an arrangement in the Strait of Hormuz where Iran receives no tolls or fees and can't deny anyone access to the waterway, a U.S. official said, adding that any specified shipping routes would be temporary. Another American official said the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports if Tehran opened the strait without impediments.

 

"It's sort of open right now" because of the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, Trump told reporters Thursday. He acknowledged that Iran "can always shoot something, always have something or drop a mine, and if you have one mine sitting out there, you sort of mess things up because people don't want to take their billion-dollar boats and accidentally get hit by a mine."

 

The memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iran in June also sought to open the Strait of Hormuz and clear the way for deeper talks and an eventual end to the war. But it fell apart amid Iranian attacks on ships aimed at asserting control over the strait.

 

The draft Hormuz deal would temporarily set up an inbound lane near Iran and an outbound lane near Oman, though Iran's top leaders still need to sign off, officials said.

 

The agreement could help unstick energy flows through Hormuz and ease pressure on the global economy. But the Arab energy exporters of the Persian Gulf, while weary of a war that has hammered their economies, are concerned it will give Iran a permanent say over a waterway that is their financial lifeline.

 

Iran's diplomats, under pressure from the Revolutionary Guard, insist more steps would be needed for the strait to fully reopen, including oil-sanctions relief and lifting a U.S. blockade on Iran ports.

 

Israeli ships would also be banned from transiting the strait, according to a report by the Revolutionary Guard-linked Fars News Agency, along with ships or cargo linked to actions against Iran's regional militia allies. Countries that have caused damage to Iran would have to pay compensation before being allowed to transit. Iran's government and military would manage navigation and traffic, Fars reported, saying those terms were included in draft legislation being reviewed by Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

 

Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the Crisis Group, a conflict-resolution organization, said the prohibition on warships is at the heart of Tehran's demands. "Iran's control is designed to provide tools to deny access to hostile vessels," Vaez said.

 

Mediators said the Iran-Oman agreement doesn't include those provisions laid out by Fars. But they still took the Iranian demands seriously after Iranian officials communicated those demands to Arab mediators leading to a setback in the talks.

 

The permanent American naval presence in the Gulf stretches back to 1971 when the U.S. took over a British base in Bahrain and later made it the headquarters of the Navy's Fifth Fleet. The U.S. military footprint in the Gulf expanded in recent decades, reaching 30,000 troops at bases in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

 

But Iranian attacks on those bases have forced the Pentagon to redeploy troops and to rely heavily on less-vulnerable installations outside the Gulf.” [1]

 

According to Mr. Trump, a single random mine, which is sometimes launched from Iran into the waters of Hormuz, will take away Mr. Trump’s Republican control of the US Congress and Senate. The mine is launched, each ship, worth billions of dollars, owner is frightened, the movement in Hormuz is stopped, prices in the world and in the US rise further, the voters in the US get angry and they no longer elect enough Republicans to hold power.

 

This geopolitical and economic chain reaction shows exactly how regional security in the Middle East directly affects US domestic politics.

Chain reaction: from Hormuz to the US elections

• The importance of the strait: The strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil shipping route.

• Price spike: Even a single mine or security threat scares insurance companies and ship owners.

• Shipping disruption: When the risk increases, the tanker is stopped or diverted to longer routes.

• Inflation: An oil supply disruption immediately raises fuel prices at gas stations around the world, including in the United States.

• Voter anger: American voters have historically been very sensitive to rising fuel prices.

• Political consequences: Voters tend to blame the ruling party for economic discontent, which can cost Republicans valuable seats in the U.S. Congress and Senate.

 

1. Iran Sees A Path to Oust U.S. From Gulf. Cloud, David S; Said, Summer; Ward, Alexander; Faucon, Benoit.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 08 Aug 2026: A1.