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2022 m. rugpjūčio 17 d., trečiadienis

Zelenski’s circus blowing up things is not worth the disruption that it is causing in US and Europe.

"Natural-gas prices in Europe closed at a record Tuesday with hot summer weather boosting fuel demand and Russia throttling back supplies.

Europe has contended since June with drastically lower imports of gas from Russia, until recently by far its biggest supplier. Moscow cut flows through the Nord Stream pipeline by 80% to punish Germany and others for supporting Ukraine. Fearing President Vladimir Putin will order a full cutoff, the European Union has embarked on a plan to conserve gas now to burn it over the winter.

In the U.S., where exports to Europe have helped keep domestic supplies lean, natural-gas futures climbed Tuesday to $9.329 per million British thermal units, the highest price in 14 years and 150% more than a year ago.

A heat wave is jeopardizing efforts in Europe to put enough gas into storage to avoid rationing in the cooler months. High temperatures have fueled gas demand in Europe and north Asia, pushing utilities in the two regions to compete for a limited number of tankers carrying supercooled liquefied natural gas and driving prices higher.

Hot, dry and still weather brings other complications. "You don't have enough wind, or enough coal barges in Germany. And actually in France, nuclear plants cannot get enough water for cooling," said Xi Nan, an analyst at Rystad Energy. "And of course, hydropower levels in general are quite low, especially in Norway."

In an acknowledgment of the impending crisis, Germany plans to postpone the closure of its final three nuclear power plants -- pausing a two-decade policy of ditching nuclear power, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing government officials.

Futures for gas at a trading hub in the Netherlands, the benchmark in northwest Europe, rose 3.2% Tuesday to 233.56 euros a megawatt-hour, about $237. That is the highest price ever in euros, surpassing the record set March 7, shortly after barrage of sanctions on Russia.

Power markets, currently dictated by the price of electricity-generating gas, are surging, too. In Germany, prices for baseload power that will be dispatched in early 2023 rose almost 9% Tuesday to 583 euros a megawatt-hour.

High prices are taking a toll on energy-intensive industries. On Tuesday, zinc producer Nyrstar NV said it would idle its Dutch smelting operations starting Sept. 1.

Electricity costs are as much as10 times as high as historical levels, and Nyrstar has struggled to pass them on through higher zinc prices, a person familiar with the decision said.

In industrial powerhouse Germany, expectations for economic growth slid so far this month, a survey by the Zew research institute showed Tuesday. Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at consulting firm Capital Economics, said the data suggest a recession is inevitable this year in part because of the effects of high energy prices on households and industry.

The U.S. hasn't been immune from the pain, given how surging domestic prices have raised heating and electricity costs. But the increase in U.S. natural-gas prices has been less intense than in Europe. Plus, the U.S. economy benefits by selling natural gas across the Atlantic.

The surge in gas prices also comes in contrast to oil prices, which are down by a third from postsactions highs, pulling prices at gasoline pumps sharply lower and giving relief to American drivers.

Economies in Central and Eastern Europe that depend on Russian oil and gas are the most exposed in the region. Moody's Investors Service this month changed the outlook for the Czech government's credit rating to negative from stable. It cited the risk of prolonged gas-supply disruptions from Russia that could lead to rationing and a deep recession.

Storage sites in the EU are almost 75% full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, putting the bloc on track to meet its target level of 80% by Nov. 1. The heat is making that more difficult, however. One reason: River levels have fallen to such low levels that German coal-power plants are struggling to import fuel. In turn, that means burning more gas to generate electricity.

Russia's cutting gas supplies to Europe, analysts and energy executives say, is causing so much economic harm that support for Ukraine wanes.” [1]

It is about time. Zelenski’s circus blowing up things is not worth the disruption that it is causing in US and Europe.

1.   European Gas Prices Hit High
Wallace, Joe. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 17 Aug 2022: B.1.

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