World News: A Weakened Iran Remains Lethal --- Tehran likely will rebuild conventional arsenal and possibly its nuclear program

“DUBAI -- Israel and the U.S. delivered powerful blows to the pillars of Iran's theocracy, degrading nuclear and missile capabilities, the highest military echelons and institutions of governance.

 

Yet the regime, while weakened, is still intact, capable of recuperating and emerging more dangerous and unpredictable. A fragile cease-fire hasn't alleviated tensions that soared during more than a week of war.

 

Israeli and U.S. warplanes pummeled Iran's nuclear supply chain and Israel killed 11 veteran nuclear scientists. They destroyed Iranian missile launchers, air defenses, state media and prison buildings. But Tehran still has a pathway -- albeit a risky one -- to a nuclear weapon.

 

"The regime is wounded, but still lethal," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which promotes relations with Israel in Washington. "Any victory lap now, despite the real successes, the real military successes, would still be premature."

 

Iran's two known uranium-enrichment sites were hit hard. Damage assessments are still being done at the Fordow facility the U.S. struck with "bunker buster" bombs to reach deep under a mountain. U.N. atomic energy agency chief Rafael Grossi said Monday he suspects it was seriously damaged.

 

Iran's oldest enrichment site at Natanz was hit harder. Grossi said all its centrifuges might have been wiped out. Israel and the U.S. also knocked out facilities capable of converting uranium into a form in which it can be enriched and turning fissile material into uranium metal. Factories for centrifuge parts were destroyed.

 

Yet, the attacks likely left Tehran in control of the main ingredients for a bomb. U.S. officials have signaled Iran still has control of about 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium it has produced since 2021. The whereabouts of the stockpile aren't known -- Grossi said it could have been moved from a facility in Isfahan before it was bombed.

 

"The country's nuclear program remains large and distributed with significant redundancy in expertise and leadership," said Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Iran "could develop a smaller, focused capability sufficient for weapons production."

 

Israel also targeted Iran's conventional weapons, leaving the nuclear targets vulnerable to attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel destroyed about half of Iran's missile launchers. Israel has said it disabled dozens of Iranian air-defense missile batteries and destroyed their production sites. Israel estimates Iran began the war with 2,500 ballistic missiles on track to possess 8,000 within two years.

 

"Israel was shooting at the archer rather than the arrow," said Fabian Hinz, a research fellow for missile technologies and drones at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 

Building more launchers and restoring air defenses that Israel first struck last year will take time, analysts said.

 

"What Israel bought itself is time," said Michael Horowitz, an Israel-based geopolitical analyst. "The question is for what?"

 

Israel could face renewed menace from Iran's proxy militias, known as the Axis of Resistance. Lebanon's Hezbollah, once Iran's most powerful allied militia, is still reeling from a punishing Israeli military campaign last year that decimated its leadership and military. The Houthis in Yemen largely sat out this month's conflict.

 

Iran could seek to rouse them now.

 

"As Iran figures out what is going to be the anchor of its deterrence strategy going forward -- and the role of its proxy network -- then it is in their interest to preserve whatever is left of Hezbollah," said Randa Slim, a fellow at the Johns Hopkins University-based Foreign Policy Institute.

 

But, Slim said, "There is a sentiment among Hezbollah supporters that Iran wasn't there for them when they needed them most."

 

On Tuesday, Iran's theocratic leaders declared victory over Israel. But the regime could be headed for internal turmoil as ambitious officials vie to fill power vacuums and seek recrimination for intelligence and security failures that left Iran vulnerable to attack.

 

Some hard-line members of Iran's parliament are calling for the regime to build a nuclear weapon to deter future attacks. Iran's leaders might determine that is too great a risk for now.

 

"This is potentially just a pause and escalation can kick up at any time unless a proper deal is done," said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London.” [1]

 

1. World News: A Weakened Iran Remains Lethal --- Tehran likely will rebuild conventional arsenal and possibly its nuclear program. Raghavan, Sudarsan; Abdel-Baqui, Omar; Norman, Laurence.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 25 June 2025: A6.