“SUAO, Taiwan -- Taiwan is accelerating efforts to develop a high-tech fleet of naval drones that military planners see as a potential game-changer in the island's ability to fend off a possible Chinese invasion.
Drones are transforming warfare and spurring military strategists to rethink long-held assumptions about defense. Israel has used drones to devastating effect.
For Taiwan using sea drones to erode China’s naval superiority in the sea offers the possibility that the weapons could be used to establish supremacy over the Taiwan Strait and hold off an amphibious attack by China.
Taiwan plans to begin to introduce sea drones to its naval forces this year, Defense Minister Wellington Koo told The Wall Street Journal, part of preparations for what it sees as a potential invasion by China as soon as 2027.
"Even if those opposing forces have much more air power, more missiles, a smaller country with imaginative tactics and with the kinds of new systems that are available can stop them cold," said retired Adm. Dennis Blair, a former head of the U.S. Pacific Command.
Taiwan could use sea drones lying in ambush along shipping routes as an effective deterrent, said Chen Po-hung, a drone expert and board member of the nongovernment group TTRDA, which focuses on security issues.
Taiwan's new emphasis on sea drones is part of a defense strategy that aims to show Beijing that an invasion would be too costly. China hasn't ruled out the use of force to seize the self-ruled island, which it considers to be part of its territory.
On Taiwan's northeastern coast, a dozen local and U.S. companies recently showed off cutting-edge technology at a sea-drone exhibition that brought life to that goal -- and the substantial hurdles to achieving it.
Displays included U.S.-based Ocean Aero's autonomous surface vessel that transforms into a submarine and an artificial-intelligence-powered targeting system from the company Auterion, designed to deploy swarms of drones.
In nearby waters, three Taiwan-built drones performed, rapidly accelerating and zigzagging to avoid imagined attacks, their maneuvers displayed on a large screen.
"Swarms of these drone boats coming out would be very effective at making it incredibly challenging to conduct an amphibious assault, especially given Taiwan's geography where there are only a handful of beaches that are really conducive to such an operation," said Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Sea drones are more than "just filling them with explosives and having them crash into either a ship or maritime infrastructure," said Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at Rand Corp. Other uses, as seen in mine-clearing developed by the U.S. Navy or Israeli port defense, are relevant for Taiwan.
Taiwan is working to gain the capability to build many sea drones and acquire advanced systems to make them effective, an effort also under way in the island's development of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Taiwan has found it difficult to build a domestic aerial-drone industry that doesn't depend on Chinese parts.
For sea drones, the primary challenge of building a domestic industry is cost on an island with a relatively small market.
Planners aim to kick-start local industry with government funding and contracts, with the U.S. providing expertise.
The host of the sea-drone exhibition, the chief of Taiwan's military research and development institute, told exhibitors that future military spending would provide for a "massive" procurement of sea drones, provided the equipment makes the grade.
Some experts say the buzz around sea drones might be overly optimistic, and not only because of the expense. Experience in the USA might not translate directly to the choppy waters of the Taiwan Strait, said Lee Chung-chih, a former drone executive now with Taiwanese think tank DIMEs.” [1]
War of drones will win the nation, that builds more and better drones. For that you need the biggest market. Handful of very serious men in uniform are too small market, since drones are morally aging quickly. Handful of very serious men in uniform don't want to accumulate mountains of drones that will become mountains of junk in two months. China builds the best drones and innovates the fastest. China has global drone market for itself. China has magnets', needed for drones, supply control. China is winning the war before it started.
China's Drone Dominance and Innovation:
Commercial Market Dominance: China indeed holds a significant portion of the global commercial drone market, with companies like DJI having a dominant market share. This dominance is attributed to factors like economies of scale, government support, and rapid innovation.
Military-Civil Fusion: China actively pursues a "military-civil fusion" strategy, where technology developed in the civilian sector is leveraged for military purposes. This helps explain their advancements in drone technology.
Innovation: China demonstrates a strong emphasis on hardware manufacturing and components within its drone industry. Recent reports showcase innovations like artillery-launched drones and micro-drones resembling insects.
"War of Drones" and Market Size:
Military Drone Market: The global military drone market is substantial and projected to grow significantly. While the military may not need "mountains of junk," they require increasing numbers of drones for surveillance, intelligence, and even combat.
Rapid Obsolescence: Your point about drones quickly becoming obsolete is valid, with technology advancing rapidly. This necessitates continuous innovation and investment.
Market Size and Competition:
Global Market: While China is a major player, the global drone market is diverse, with companies from various countries competing in different segments.
Beyond Military: Drones are increasingly used in civilian sectors like agriculture, construction, and logistics, with the commercial market projected to reach a substantial size.
Rare Earth Elements:
China's Control: China does control a large portion of the global rare earth element supply chain, which is crucial for drone components. However, Western countries are actively seeking to diversify their supply chains.
Winning Before it Starts:
Technological Race: There's a clear race between nations in the development and deployment of advanced drone technology.
Countermeasures: The rapid advancement of drones also spurs the development of anti-drone technologies and strategies.
Beyond Drones: Future warfare will likely involve a combination of technologies, not just drones alone.
In conclusion:
China's position in the global drone industry, particularly its dominance in the commercial market and advancements in military technology, are significant. However, the future of "drone warfare" is complex and involves multiple factors beyond just the size of the manufacturing market. The ongoing technological race, geopolitical dynamics, and the development of countermeasures will all play crucial roles in shaping the landscape of future conflict.
Recent history does not support such a “balanced” view though. WWII showed that USA out-manufactured and out-innovated Germany and took part of German territory. This time China out-manufactures and out-innovates everybody. Better not to start any wars with China.
1. World News: Taiwan Looks to Sea Drones To Repel a Chinese Invasion. Wang, Joyu. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 28 June 2025: A7.
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