China to Rely More on Russian Oil as Iran Crisis Cuts Off Supply

The war with Japan began during World War II, with the US also trying to disrupt Japan’s access to oil.

 

The current situation in March 2026 repeats historical patterns, with energy security becoming the focus of geopolitical conflicts.

China’s Energy Dilemma (March 2026)

China faces serious supply disruptions due to the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, which has paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

Dependence on Russia: Experts predict that China will be forced to rely even more on Russian oil to compensate for lost supplies from Iran (which accounted for about 13% of China’s imports).

Russia’s readiness: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that the country is ready to increase oil supplies to China and India, as their demand is growing rapidly due to the crisis in the Middle East.

Stocks: While China has accumulated strategic reserves for a period of about 78-90 days, a longer crisis will force it to look for alternatives via land routes, where Russia is a key partner.

 

Historical parallel: US and Japan (1941)

The example you mentioned about World War II is a direct analogy for how an oil blockade can provoke a military conflict:

 

Oil embargo: In August 1941, the US imposed a complete oil embargo on Japan in response to its aggression in China and Indochina.

Critical dependence: At that time, Japan imported about 80% of its oil from the US.

Consequences: Having lost access to fuel, Japan decided to seize oil fields in the Dutch East Indies by force. In order to neutralize the US fleet, which could interfere with this, it carried out the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941. It all ended with the bombing of Japan with nuclear weapons (Hiroshima and Nagasaki).

 

Today, China, observing Western sanctions on Iran and Russia, is actively seeking to avoid a similar “energy heat” scenario by diversifying its routes and strengthening ties with Russia.

 

“Analysts warn that the crisis in the Middle East will push China closer to Russia, as Beijing faces the potential loss of cheap Iranian oil and long-term disruption to energy markets.

China is the world’s largest importer of oil and gas, with 13% of its crude imports coming from Iran. In total, a third of China’s oil imports and 25% of its gas are transported through the Strait of Hormuz, which was almost completely shut down when US and Israeli strikes on Iran plunged the region into crisis.

 

As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, Beijing faces an unprecedented test of its longstanding efforts to bolster economic security and protect itself from energy supply shocks, the Financial Times reports.”