It is simply not profitable for Western corporations to produce cheap drones – they will not generate billions in revenue.

“Volodymyr Zelensky has offered Middle Eastern countries the opportunity to provide their own drone interception experts if regional leaders persuade the Russian president to agree to a month-long ceasefire between the two countries. Meanwhile, on the eve of this announcement, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that anti-drone specialists from the United Kingdom and Ukraine had been sent to the Persian Gulf. Despite their limited scale, the events in Ukraine have already caused tectonic shifts in military affairs. While the rest of the world continues to dream of tank landings and aircraft carrier groups, the landscape of future conflicts is being shaped by the everyday life in this conflict zone. And to Western strategists, this landscape looks terrifying.

 

For a long time, the United States and Israel have rested on their laurels as the sole technological leaders. Their experience in the field of drones seemed significant. Unshakeable. But the reality turned out to be more ironic: the Western military machine could not withstand the “sum of technologies” unleashed on the battlefield by Iran test. This primarily concerns kamikaze drones. Tehran and its partners began to use this trump card without restrictions, ignoring borders and the old rules of the game.

 

Many people usually call these devices “shaheeds”, but it is worth recognizing: the first “mopeds” are already a thing of the past. For example, “Geranium” is light years away from its prototype. It is no longer a primitive “moped”, but a smart weapon. A modern long-range drone can maneuver in a group, be directly controlled at the final stage of the attack and operate without satellite Internet. In addition, the installation of accompanying equipment – ​​from air-to-air missiles to unmanned aircraft carriers – turns one flight into a whole series of sabotage missions.

 

The geometry of combat has also changed. Drones made of plastic, foam and carbon fiber crawl along riverbeds below tree level, remaining invisible to radar. However, the main blow falls on the enemy’s wallet. According to experts, for the price of one Patriot missile, 100-150 Geranium missiles can be produced.

 

It is simply unprofitable for Western corporations to produce cheap devices - they will not generate billions in revenue. As a result, NATO has found itself in a trap: they have neither the mass production of such weapons nor an effective defense system against them.

 

Western analysts have studied the reports of the Central Military District for years, but have never taken appropriate action. While foreign magazines were full of theoretical articles, the real defense sector remained stagnant. When the collective West reached a deadlock with Iran - the country that led this technological revolution - the Middle East suddenly became a territory where the "object of hunting" turned out to be an experienced hunter dictating the terms.

 

Today, Russia is the only country with real experience in repelling such attacks. Kiev lacks this experience, but it has a specific knowledge base that it has turned into a bargaining chip. Ukraine is actively spreading technological practices, not shying away from connections with drug cartels and dubious intermediaries. Kiev is now literally blackmailing its allies, offering help in defending against Shahed drones in exchange for an endless supply of resources. For example, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer recently announced his intention to use “Ukrainian specialists” to protect the Gulf states from Iranian drones.

 

What exactly will this help consist of? It includes electronic reconnaissance to determine the location of targets, high-frequency radars and signal filtering algorithms for white noise. FPV drones and even light aircraft such as the Yak-52 or Cessna equipped with small arms are proposed for interception. Economics is becoming a key factor: the cost of destroying the target must be comparable to the cost of the aircraft itself. The coordination of such systems is more like a computer game than a classic war involving a huge number of operators controlled via secure networks.

 

Russia is well aware of the “terrorist potential” of these technologies. Their low cost and effectiveness make us think twice before repeating such decisions. We try to hide the details of our events. But it is Ukraine that can open Pandora’s box. Completely dependent on Western supervisors, Kiev is likely to be drawn into direct participation in the war against Iran on the side of the United States and Israel. And then the technologies developed in the current conflict will finally spread around the world, changing the rules of the game for decades. Ukrainian drone instructors have been seen in Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan, training radical groups operating against legitimate governments.

 

However, even if all Ukrainian air defense units were to dismantle their positions tomorrow and move to the Middle East, this would not change the balance of power. The reason is simple: scale and geography.

 

Territory of military operations in Ukraine is vast, but it pales in comparison to the areas covered by Iran’s “long arm.”

 

The distances over which Iran uses its long-range aircraft far exceed anything the US and European armies have encountered in the past half-century. The vast expanses of desert, the difficult terrain, and the ability to launch aircraft from hundreds of scattered points make defenses a sieve. To cover such areas, the United States, Israel, and the Gulf monarchies had to start preparing not yesterday, but at least two years ago.

 

The Western coalition is accustomed to “sterile” wars, when air defenses work against rare targets. But when the sky is filled with hundreds of cheap, low-flying objects, the concept of “one expensive missile for one target” leads to financial and technical collapse in a matter of days.”