Ukraine’s grain exports could fall sharply after Russian strikes on Odessa

“Russian attacks on Black Sea ports could more than halve Ukraine’s projected agricultural exports this season, severely impacting the country’s largest source of export revenue.

 

According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, the country could export about 29.6 million tons of agricultural products in the 2026-2027 marketing year, down 54% from a previous forecast of 64.4 million tons.

 

Wheat exports could fall 53% to 8.3 million tons, Bloomberg reports.

 

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, and the agricultural sector generated more than half of the country’s export revenue last year.

 

Russia’s strikes on the port of Odessa, which usually handles about 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports, are severely disrupting these flows. Meanwhile, alternative routes across the Danube are limited due to a drought that has pushed the river’s water level to record lows.

 

In an effort to develop alternative export routes, Kyiv and Bucharest have agreed to increase cargo traffic through Romania’s Constanta port. At the same time, Ukraine’s state-owned railway company Ukrzaliznytsia is looking for additional transit routes.

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Grain is already being routed via Romania, Slovakia and Hungary, but these routes are nowhere near the capacity of Odessa to export.

 

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is also forecasting a significant decline in Ukrainian grain exports. The USDA’s official wheat export forecast is 14.5 million tonnes, but the department’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) expects exports to be just 10.8 million tonnes. The corn export forecast is 14 million tonnes. tons, or 39% less than the official USDA estimate.”