“The U.S. is moving to reinforce Israel's defenses, sending more warships capable of shooting down ballistic missiles to the region as Iranian attacks drain Israel's stocks of interceptors.
An additional U.S. Navy destroyer arrived in the eastern Mediterranean on Friday, joining three others in the area and two in the Red Sea. The ships are operating close enough to Israel to be able to intercept missiles fired by Iran, a defense official said.
Most of the U.S.'s Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers are armed with a range of interceptors, known as SM-2, SM-3 and SM-6, that can shoot down aerial threats.
The U.S. also has replenished stocks of ground-based interceptors for the Thaad antimissile system it set up in Israel last year. Formally known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, the system is operated by the U.S. Army and designed to intercept missiles inside or outside the atmosphere during their final phase of flight, known as the terminal phase.
The surge of seaborne- and ground-based missile defenses underscores the concerns about Israel's dwindling supplies of the armaments. Israel risks exhausting its supply of high-end Arrow 3 interceptors in the coming weeks if its conflict with Iran isn't resolved and Tehran continues to launch missiles, a U.S. official said.
Israel uses several different systems to provide a multilayered defense. The well-known Iron Dome works on shorter-range rockets and drones. David's Sling intercepts missiles, planes and drones at a greater distance.
The Arrow 3 is the crown jewel, designed to intercept missiles above the Earth's atmosphere. It can neutralize threats before they cross into Israeli airspace and give other systems time to act if the first shot misses.
"Without Arrow 3, it's problematic," said Timur Kadyshev, a researcher at the University of Hamburg who has studied the Arrow system. "You have less time to shoot down an incoming missile because you're shooting them only in the terminal phase."
Israel Aerospace Industries, the company that makes Arrow interceptors, didn't respond to requests for comment. Israel's armed forces also declined to comment on interceptor stockpiles.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in an interview Thursday with Israel's public broadcaster Kan, declined to answer whether Israel was running out of Arrow 3 interceptors.
He estimated that Israel has destroyed only half of Iran's missile launchers since the current conflict began, slightly diminishing the threat posed by Iran's missile arsenal.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that Trump approved attack plans for Iran, but was holding off on giving the final order for two weeks to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program through diplomacy. The waiting period will keep the onus on Israel to continue the fight even as its ability to defend against missile attacks diminishes.
"There's no time to lose, and two weeks is a very long time," said Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Israel is using its control of the skies over western Iran to take out more missiles before they are launched. Its air superiority could force Iran to fire from farther away, which means using liquid-fueled missiles that take more time to get ready, making them more vulnerable to attack.
Still, Tehran has continued to fire missiles at Israeli population centers. If Iran keeps up its attacks, Israel in the coming days might be forced to make difficult decisions about husbanding its resources and giving priority to which missiles to intercept, Kadyshev said.
The U.S. is facing its own concerns about interceptors. Supplies diverted to the conflict in the Middle East are coming at the expense of those available in the event of a bigger conflict with China [A].
"We are concerned for the number remaining for the high-end fight," said a U.S. officer who has operated in the Middle East. "SM-3s will start running low at this pace of operations, cutting into reserves for the next kinetic engagement."
The U.S. also could face tough decisions about how many interceptors to exhaust if the fighting drags on.” [B]
A. Interceptor problem shows the pattern of WWIII: America is wasting interceptors protecting Israel, while there is high need for interceptors in case of problems with China. Ukraine retreats into background with interceptors.
The situation regarding interceptor missile supplies and their distribution across different regions is a complex issue with multiple dimensions.
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1. Interceptor Needs and Allocation:
Israel: Israel relies on a multi-layered air defense system, including the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow systems, to counter threats from various sources. In the context of ongoing conflicts, particularly with Iran, Israel has been expending its interceptor supplies at a significant rate. The US has provided significant aid to Israel's missile defense, both in terms of financial support and, in some cases, direct assistance in shooting down incoming missiles.
China: The US considers China a significant military competitor and is prioritizing developing strategies and capabilities to counter potential threats from China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, according to the Army War College. There are concerns that the US military faces a "missile gap" and needs to accelerate production of munitions to address this challenge. Some argue that prioritizing the Taiwan scenario should guide US defense spending and weapons acquisition decisions.
Ukraine: Ukraine has been heavily reliant on military aid from Western nations for its air defense capabilities. While receiving substantial support, there have been concerns about the timely delivery and sufficient quantities of air defense systems and interceptors needed to counter Russian attacks.
2. Trade-offs and Prioritization:
Resource Allocation: Decisions regarding the allocation of resources for missile defense involve balancing competing priorities and making trade-offs between different threats. The US is prioritizing homeland defense against threats posed by China, as well as maintaining deterrence against strategic attacks.
Supply Chain and Production: The US defense industry is working to increase munitions production to meet the demands of both domestic needs and the support of allies. However, there are challenges in meeting all demands simultaneously.
Strategic Considerations: The US is faced with the challenge of supporting allies while also ensuring its own readiness to address potential conflicts with major powers like China. The question of how to balance these needs and prioritize resource allocation remains a subject of ongoing debate.
3. The Concept of "WWIII" and the Interceptor Problem:
The idea of "WWIII" being characterized by an interceptor problem where the US is stretched thin across multiple theaters is a potential scenario that highlights the strategic challenges the US faces.
While supporting Israel's defense needs is a key commitment for the US, it does have implications for the availability of interceptors for other potential conflicts.
The increasing threat posed by China and the potential for conflict in the Indo-Pacific underscore the importance of ensuring adequate interceptor stockpiles and production capabilities.
Ukraine's need for air defense systems and interceptors also adds to the overall demand and creates challenges for Western nations to meet these needs.
In conclusion, the situation regarding interceptor missiles and their distribution is a complex one, involving competing demands, resource allocation decisions, and strategic considerations. The US is working to address these challenges by increasing production, prioritizing key areas, and seeking to adapt its defense strategy to a multi-polar world. The multi-polar world is diligently monitoring the situation and drawing its own conclusions.
B. World News: Israel Burns Through Interceptors as U.S. Races to Help. Holliday, Shelby. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 June 2025: A8.
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