You Can't Legislate Fertility

“Nobody ever had a baby for the tax break. That's a simple reality that doesn't seem to have dawned on the social conservatives pushing what they call "family friendly" provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act currently working its way through the Senate. The bill contains several provisions that advocates say will be a boon to new parents and shore up the struggling American family. Don't count on it.

 

Birthrates across the West have been plummeting for decades. In 1960, the average American woman had 3.65 children in her lifetime. That's fallen to about 1.6. It's a big problem in need of an urgent solution.

 

But the fix won't be found in the tax code. European countries have showered families with tax incentives and child-care subsidies for years. All to no effect.

 

In France, the law guarantees generous parental benefits, including paid leave, cash birth grants, child-care payments, mortgage support, and lower fares on public transit. For all this largess, fertility is no higher in France than in the U.S. In Hungary, the example par excellence of family-friendly public policy, birth rates are lower than they are here -- and falling.

 

The West is undeniably in the midst of a dangerous demographic collapse. The reasons are complex and hotly debated. Changing sex roles have certainly played a part. The female labor-force participation rate has nearly doubled since 1955. The precipitous decline in religious belief is also to blame.

 

One thing's for certain: Tax policy has nothing to do with it.

 

Once kingmakers in the Republican Party, social conservatives have watched their influence in the GOP and, by extension, the larger culture, steadily erode. The whiplash effect of losing the gay-marriage fight and winning at the Supreme Court on abortion has left social conservatives grasping for a saleable agenda. Everybody knows they are against transgender madness. But what are they for?

 

The writers and thinkers in the movement's intellectual vanguard have alighted on pronatalism -- a grab bag of policies, from birth bonuses and tax credits to paid leave, meant to reverse the baby bust by putting cash in the hands of new parents. Their motives are pure. It'll never work.

 

The pronatalists believe babies are a good thing. I agree. I'm in the habit of telling young people to have as many children as they can, that they'll never regret having a child. Babies are worth it even when raising them is hard, which is most of the time. There's never enough money. If you had more, you'd still think it wasn't enough. The need expands to meet the resources available. Don't let it stop you from starting your family, I say. The money will take care of itself.

 

My bona fides on this score are impeccable. I'm the father of five. The younger me never would have thought it possible, but somehow we manage to get by. People always do.

 

That's the part that pronatalists don't seem to understand. People have children for many reasons. Biology is one. We're hard-wired to reproduce. Culture is another.

 

Some societies place a high value on children as a common good.

 

But have you ever met anyone who could be talked into starting a family with the promise of a time-limited, $2,500 partially refundable tax credit? Subsidies and handouts aren't the answer.

 

The best thing the government can do to support families is to give them the gift of a growing economy. There are plenty of policies proven to do just that and pro-family Republicans should support them. A future full of possibilities to work and consume, to invest in education and save for the future, is worth far more to parents than any one-time payment or targeted tax break. Opportunity is what American families need, not entitlements.

 

The pronatalists will argue that the law is a teacher. If the government signals that it values children and families, then prospective parents will look past the social and cultural factors keeping them on the sidelines of the baby game. That's asking a lot from one piece of legislation, no matter how big or beautiful.

 

The solution to this vexing problem is in families and churches, not Congress. It's in the casual conversations between neighbors and co-workers. It's in the mentorship of example. If you want people to have more babies, spread the word. Take a moment to explain why it will enrich their lives. Show them, through your own happiness, how great it is to nurture children, to see them thrive. Eventually the message will get around. Your young friends will recognize the value of having children and want a family for its own sake -- maybe even a big one.

 

Until then, give them prosperity. Give them hope for the future. Give them what is actually in the government's power to deliver: the circumstances conducive to a growing economy.

 

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Mr. Hennessey is the Journal's deputy editorial features editor.” [1]

 

1. You Can't Legislate Fertility. Hennessey, Matthew.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 June 2025: A17.