“SAO PAULO -- Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a former shoeshine boy born to illiterate parents, has made a life of defying expectations. But his shock victory Sunday, securing him a fourth term and a place among the world's longest-serving elected leaders, surprised even those in his own party.
Three weeks ago, da Silva was politically all but written off after losing the first round to Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of bitter rival, former President Jair Bolsonaro, by a 45%-47% margin. Never before in Brazil's democratic history had a presidential candidate lost the first round and won the runoff. Abstention was at its highest level since 1998, and polls showed him narrowly trailing Bolsonaro. The right had begun selecting ministers for a new government.
But in one of the most dramatic electoral upsets in Brazil's history, da Silva secured a fourth term with more than 64 million votes, the most ever won by a presidential candidate. Da Silva, who turns 81 on Oct. 27, is on course to spend 16 years in office.
Pollsters scrambled to explain how da Silva revived the left in just three weeks across a region where conservatives have taken control of every major country except Mexico.
Bolsonaro and his supporters had one explanation: fraud. As conspiracy theories spread online, Bolsonaro refused to concede Sunday, vowing to seek an annulment over a last-minute Supreme Court decision to extend voting by two hours.
Bolsonaro, who is under investigation for alleged money laundering and over efforts to secure financing for a film about his father from a banker embroiled in a fraud scandal, said police ordered him to surrender his passports Monday over concerns he might flee.
While world leaders rushed to congratulate da Silva, Washington hasn't recognized the result. President Trump, without offering details, said he believes the election was rigged.
But the explanation for da Silva's comeback, according to political scientists, pollsters and the president himself, lay in a mix of hope -- and, above all, fear. A fierce grassroots mobilization brought young and elderly voters to the polls, many of whom stayed home in the first round.
Fearmongering stoked concerns among poorer Brazilians that they could lose government benefits under a right-wing administration.
Much of that last-minute mobilization was driven by Andre Janones, a former bus conductor turned combative congressman allied with da Silva's Workers' Party, who brought his aggressive social-media tactics to the struggling campaign. Janones's barrage of viral videos and personal attacks against the Bolsonaros helped energize the campaign, while his pro-da Silva WhatsApp channel surged from 50,000 followers to nearly 11 million after the first round of voting.
Da Silva also rapidly changed tack after his first-round loss. Gone was his signature Panama hat and the Workers' Party's trademark red; in came Brazil's national colors of green and yellow, long associated with the Bolsonaro movement. He also reversed his longstanding stance on crime, backing a proposal to try 16-year-olds as adults for serious offenses.
"He was not re-elected tonight because he doubled down on leftist ideology," said Kevin Ivers at StratComms, a political-analysis newsletter.
Da Silva picked up an additional 10.4 million votes between rounds. Higher turnout helped: Nearly three million more Brazilians went to the polls in the runoff. About a fifth of the population stayed home in the first round on Oct. 4.
Another 1.8 million voters who had cast blank or invalid ballots in the first round, often used by Brazilians to express dissatisfaction with the candidates, chose one in the runoff.
But even if every additional voter backed da Silva, more than 5.5 million votes would still be unexplained. That suggests da Silva also drew substantial support from voters who backed lesser-known candidates who were defeated in the first round.
It also is possible voters switched from Bolsonaro to da Silva because the electorate is often swayed by pragmatic questions rather than ideology, political scientists said.
"The most convincing explanation is that da Silva managed to build a coalition driven more by opposition to Bolsonarismo [1] than by identification with the president himself," said Leandro Gabiati, a political scientist and director at Dominium Public Affairs.
For the Bolsonaro camp such a turnaround was inconceivable, with many seizing on the chaos to allege foul play.” [2]
1. Bolsonarismo’s Economic Liberalism & Neoliberalism: Promotes market deregulation, fiscal austerity, and privatization, drawing significant support from agribusiness and elites.
2. World News: Grassroots Mobilization Propelled Lula --- Supporters stoked poorer Brazilians' fear of consequences from right-wing win. Pearson, Samantha. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 27 Oct 2026: A6.
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