Cheap Drones vs. Expensive Interceptors: The Weapons Used by Iran, the U.S., and Israel. Iran Launches Super-Heavy Solid-Fuel Sejjil Missile

Drone and missile swarms are critical to Iran’s defense, serving as a cornerstone of its asymmetric military strategy designed to overwhelm advanced, expensive air defense systems with high-volume, low-cost "kamikaze" drones. These systems create a durable, scalable deterrent by exhausting enemy defenses and threatening regional infrastructure, representing the "crown jewels" of Iranian military capability.

 

Key aspects of Iran's swarm strategy:

 

    Cost Imbalance Strategy: Iran uses cheap drones ($30,000 range) to force adversaries to expend far more expensive missiles ($3 million range) to intercept them, creating a sustainable, asymmetric economic war.

 

    Saturation Doctrine: By launching vast, simultaneous waves of drones and missiles, Iran aims to overwhelm, or "saturate," sophisticated radar and defense networks like the Patriot system, forcing gaps in protection.

 

    Persistence & Intelligence: Drones are used not just for destruction but as a long-term "pressure architecture," enabling surveillance, intelligence gathering, and consistent threats against regional rivals and U.S. bases.

 

    Strategic Escalation Control: Swarms allow Iran to strike deep into enemy territory with plausible deniability or low risk of immediate catastrophic casualty, keeping escalation risks under control.

 

    Key Systems: The Shahed series of loitering munitions is critical, with developments focusing on increased range and autonomous intelligence-sharing capabilities, aiming to move from mere mass to, potentially, intelligence-driven AI swarm tactics.

 

This approach allows a militarily weaker adversary to create a "math problem" for defenders, forcing the need for cheaper defenses like lasers to counter the constant volume, say analysts like retired Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan on WFIN.

 

 

 

“The US-Israeli conflict with Iran began with mutual missile strikes, but it has gradually evolved into a different phase. Tehran is systematically conducting drone strikes against targets in Israel and the Persian Gulf states, aiming to deplete their costly air defense systems. In response, the US has also begun utilizing expendable drones to strike targets within Iran.

 

Iran’s Military Capabilities

 

• The 12-day war with Israel in 2025 significantly depleted Iran’s missile arsenal. Prior to that conflict, Iran possessed approximately 3,000 cruise and ballistic missiles; however, hundreds of them were either launched toward Israel or destroyed by Israel while still on the ground. It is believed that, since that time, Iran has worked intensively to replenish its losses, bringing its missile count back up to 2,500. However, a substantial portion of this inventory consists of short-range missiles incapable of reaching Israel (the distance between the two capitals is approximately 1,500 km).

 

• Nevertheless, this arsenal has now proven to be in high demand. Iran has expanded its strike zone and begun launching attacks against Persian Gulf nations located within a 500-km radius. For these operations, Iran has deployed Shahab-1 and Shahab-2, Fateh-110, Fateh-313, and Quds-1 missiles. Against Israel, however, Iran is utilizing a limited stockpile of medium-range missiles, such as the Khorramshahr, Kheibarshekan, Emad, and Qadr.

 

A significant new development has been the deployment of the super-heavy solid-fuel Sejjil missile—which, as recently as last year, was still merely a prospective development—as well as the Fattah-2 hypersonic missile.

 

• Nevertheless, the current military campaign is characterized by a relatively low rate of missile usage on Iran’s part. Taking the UAE as an example, it can be noted that while on the first day [at the outset] of the conflict, Iran launched over 130 missiles at them; however, by the very next day, that number had dropped to just 28. In all subsequent days, the UAE Ministry of Defense noted that fewer than 20 missiles were directed toward their territory. One possible reason for this could be an insufficient supply of missiles to sustain launches at the same intensity observed in June 2025.

 

• However, this shift may also be linked to a change in Iran's tactics—specifically, a strategy focused primarily on using drones to strike air defense systems and radar installations in the Persian Gulf states, as well as to deplete the air defense assets of the U.S. armed forces. It is hypothesized that, following this preparatory phase, Iran would be positioned to utilize its remaining missile stockpile with greater effectiveness.

 

• Indeed, Tehran has been actively deploying Shahed drones, maintaining a consistent launch volume day after day. These drones have proven particularly effective in strikes against targets located in close proximity to Iran. While their effectiveness against Israel was extremely low due to the significant distances involved, the Persian Gulf states have increasingly come under attack from them. Moreover, Iran possesses the capability to launch drones from multiple directions simultaneously, thereby complicating defensive efforts; in contrast, drones directed at Israel typically followed a single, predictable trajectory.

 

• A potential new development in Iran's strategy could involve the use of submarine-launched missiles. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has asserted that it intends to employ these munitions in the coming days. Although these missiles are relatively slow—reaching speeds of only up to 100 meters per second (roughly half the speed of most cruise missiles)—determining the precise time and location of their launch would be significantly more difficult, thereby ensuring the element of surprise.

 

U.S. Military Capabilities

 

• On the U.S. side, Tomahawk missiles have emerged as the primary strike asset employed against targets within Iranian territory. With a range of up to 1,600 kilometers, these missiles are launched from destroyers operating in the Arabian Sea, enabling them to reach targets across the entire expanse of the Islamic Republic. Tomahawks inflict significant damage on Iran's military infrastructure; however, their numbers are severely limited. Current plans indicate that throughout 2026, the U.S. will procure a mere 57 new missiles—a quantity entirely disproportionate to the scale of the ongoing conflict.

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• The U.S. has also deployed the new PrSM ballistic missile against Iran, demonstrating its launch from a wheeled launcher platform typically utilized for the HIMARS multiple rocket launch system and ATACMS missiles. The PrSM boasts a range of up to 500 km, while its ongoing development aims to double that range and enable launches from surface vessels. Another key advantage is that each launcher pod accommodates two such missiles. The conflict with Iran could propel the PrSM to the forefront of its class, potentially replacing the ATACMS.

 

• Another American innovation involves the deployment of expendable LUCAS drones—unmanned aerial vehicles similar in specifications and purpose to the Shahed drones. Their primary advantage lies in their low cost (the letter "L" in the name stands for "Low-Cost"); the production cost for a single unit is $35,000, whereas a single Tomahawk missile costs $1.6 million. In addition to these drones U.S. air forces are also utilizing their established fleet of MQ-9 Reaper drones.

 

• The U.S. holds a significant aerial advantage over Iran. They have deployed their full complement of advanced air assets, including B-2 bombers, which executed round-trip missions from the U.S. to drop bunker-buster bombs on fortified underground missile bases. Among their fighter assets, F-35s and F/A-18s have been deployed—aircraft capable of striking both aerial and ground targets. In addition to these, a wide array of specialized aircraft are being utilized to perform functions such as reconnaissance, patrol, aerial refueling, electronic warfare, communications relay, and airborne early warning and control.

 

• Conversely, the U.S. faces a vulnerability in the realm of air and missile defense. The Patriot and THAAD systems—which are also widely utilized by nations in the Persian Gulf region—have proven too costly to employ for intercepting Iranian drones. Consequently, these systems are prioritized for use against Iranian ballistic missiles, leaving the issue of drone defense largely unresolved. The U.S. currently lacks a comprehensive network of interceptor drones capable of protecting its ships and military bases—let alone its allies in the Middle East. Washington is attempting to address this issue by redeploying Patriot and THAAD interceptor missiles from South Korea; however, this measure will not prevent a severe shortage of interceptors should the conflict become protracted and Iran retain its capacity to manufacture new missiles and drones.

Israel’s Military Capabilities

 

• Israel, for its part, relies primarily on its own indigenous air defense assets, although it does also possess U.S.-made THAAD systems. Jordan—across whose airspace Iranian missiles frequently pass—also operates these systems. However, the primary emphasis of Israel’s air defense strategy is placed on the "David’s Sling" system, which was designed specifically to intercept medium-range ballistic missiles. Its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors strike missiles both within and above the atmosphere. The renowned Iron Dome system is designed to counter artillery and short-range rockets; however, in the context of the current conflict, the threat these pose to Israel is not as pressing. Nevertheless, Iron Dome proves inadequate in the face of massive barrages or when medium-to-long-range missiles are employed: in the former case, the system lacks the capacity to intercept every incoming target, while in the latter, a different tier of missile defense is required.

 

• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) assert that the interception rate for Iranian missiles is comparable to figures from the previous year. However—much like with the United States—the overall effectiveness of Israel’s air defenses is entirely contingent upon its available stockpile of interceptors. Although Iran has diverted a portion of its munitions toward Persian Gulf nations during the current conflict, Israel continues to sustain strikes—including those from cluster-warhead missiles, which possess a wide area of ​​effect.

 

• At the same time, the IDF has acknowledged that the "Iron Beam" laser defense system is not currently being utilized to counter the ongoing Iranian attacks. In the past, military sources had reported that this system had been placed on active operational duty and had even participated in intercepting drones launched from Lebanon. Yet, for the time being, Israel continues to rely on conventional air defense assets—despite the growing risk of depleting its existing stockpiles.”