"Europe lost in Ukraine" - "A gigantic paradox". Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk: Part of Europe has opted for the continuation of the conflict in Ukraine

 

"In the face of voices about the need for large expenditures on armaments in Europe, a sharp increase in debt can be expected, and Poland will face a politically suicidal debate for its participants on the restoration of compulsory military service - assessed Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk. Joanna Ćwiek-Świdecka's interlocutor pointed out that Europe lost in Ukraine, and the United States is reorienting its policy.

 

The effects of the events may be the process of deepening European integration and a decline in the importance of nation states - he predicted.

 

After the failure of Friday's talks between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump in the White House, in a situation when the Ukrainian president left Washington ahead of time and the American-Ukrainian agreement on the exploitation of raw materials in Ukraine was not signed, a meeting of leaders of some European countries took place in London on Sunday, who discussed the situation in Ukraine and security in Europe.

 

Asked to comment on the events of recent days, political scientist from the University of Warsaw, Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk, assessed in a conversation with Joanna Ćwiek-Świdecka that "more has happened in terms of form, not content". - We in Poland did not want to accept that the internal interests in the United States, in terms of various pressure groups, large social groups, political parties and factions, are simply different.

 

For years, we have been fed with a de facto propaganda vision of how wonderful it is when the outgoing president symbolically hands over power to his successor and the United States continues its policy in the main areas, in this case international policy. This was an absolutely false vision - he said.

 

Conflict in Ukraine. Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk: Some European countries have bet on continuing the armed conflict

 

- We have an externalization of the fact that for the Republicans, strategic interests concern Asia, China as competition, especially in terms of industry, and also - for various reasons - the Middle East - continued the guest of "Rzeczpospolita". - We did not want to accept that the Western world is more of a mythologized concept than a real one, that the difference in interests between the United States and Western Europe is a permanent difference and a political alliance does not annihilate such interests - he added.

 

- At the moment, we are simply dealing with the process of reorientation of American policy and the desire to close those disputes and conflicts that the current administration considers secondary and harmful - said Prof. Chwedoruk.

 

He argued that in Europe "we are dealing with a gigantic paradox".

 

- A significant part of European countries, countries with the greatest potential, tried to prevent conflict, in the first weeks they tried to mediate, but then tied their interests to the administration of the previous president (Joe Biden - ed.), they bet on the continuation of the armed conflict, and not on seeking peace. After the change of administration (in the USA - ed.), the French and to some extent the Germans found themselves in a complete political vacuum - he assessed.

 

In his opinion, the Ukrainian authorities did not realize that with Trump's arrival "the realities have completely changed".

 

- In reality, what is important in politics will happen in the next few weeks - predicted Joanna Ćwiek-Świdecka's interlocutor.

 

Is the Trump-Zelensky quarrel a total disaster for Ukrainian diplomacy?

 

Commenting on the stormy course of Volodymyr Zelensky's conversation with Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk noted that there is an ongoing political conflict in Ukraine, and Friday's events, according to reports from "bloggers distant from Zelensky", were poorly received as a "total disaster for Ukrainian diplomacy", especially in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

 

Did Volodymyr Zelensky allow himself to be provoked in the Oval Office? - I think that if we look closely, I don't think that all this is limited to directing, because there was a very heavy curse in Russian addressed to a politician who will probably try to become Donald Trump's successor - emphasized the political scientist. He referred to the recording, which is supposed to show that during the conversation with the president and vice president of the USA, Zelensky quietly cursed at J.D. Vance.

 

According to Chwedoruk, the statements of European politicians in London show that the president of Ukraine "did not win the game with the Americans". - Because absolutely nothing results from the meeting in London, except that there will be another meeting - added the professor. He also expressed the view that "Europe can only act reactively in a situation where all the cards are on the American side".

 

According to the political scientist, the leaders of the USA and Ukraine will sit down at the negotiating table again.

 

Will Poland face a debate on the restoration of compulsory military service?

 

Recently, voices of European leaders have appeared about the need to militarize Europe. - As taxpayers of the national we should immediately grab our pockets. Such militarization means the prospect of a long-term decline in the standard of living in Europe, and many European economies, including the most important one for us, Germany, are experiencing structural problems - commented Rafał Chwedoruk. - An attempt to invest in armaments is an attempt to invest that will never fully pay off. They can drive some sectors of the economy in the short term, but they mean a sharp increase in debt - he assessed.

 

- This also means, in the Polish case, a politically suicidal debate for anyone who gets involved in it, on the restoration of compulsory military service, of course under a different name and probably not for a period of two or three years - he emphasized, adding that armaments in Europe will on balance strengthen the United States, because "a huge part of these armaments will have to be associated with the American industry".

 

"Europe lost in Ukraine"

 

- What I think is very important from a Polish perspective, which we do not want to fully accept, is that Europe lost in Ukraine, and I do not mean the outcome of the armed struggle, because this can be assessed in different ways, but politically it lost everything it could - said prof. Rafał Chwedoruk in an interview with Joanna Ćwiek-Świdecka. - The entire European modus vivendi was based on cheap raw materials from Russia and cheap Chinese consumer products. The former have already been limited or are still being purchased from Russia only as Kazakh, Indian, and probably soon also as American - he added.

 

He pointed out that Europe was facing a "fundamental dilemma" regarding the issue of deepening integration.

 

- The defeated European elites tried to win the catastrophe of 2022 to their advantage by pointing to the Russian bogeyman as an inspiration to deepen European integration in the political dimension - he noted. - We will be dealing with a rather serious situation and discussion here as well, because we will have to realistically address these processes.

 

These processes will mean weakening the ability of the nation state to influence, entrusting the Union with increasingly greater functions - he continued."

 

The Germans and French are using this fear of Russia to deprive us, the Lithuanian people, of the remaining opportunities to solve the issues, that are important for us. Former communist henchmen (Ožys, Nausėda, Grybauskaitė, social democrats and others) are fiercely serving their new masters.