A Food Crisis May Be Coming to the U.S.

“In my last face-to-face conversation with my mentor, agronomist Norman Borlaug (1914-2009), he told me to be on guard for shocks to the food supply system. They could be from naturally occurring phenomena like wheat rust and weather or from human activity such as sustained global conflicts. When a man credited with saving at least a billion people from starvation asks you to pay attention to something, it isn't a message you forget or ignore.

 

We are in the midst of the kind of disruption he foresaw, due to the triple whammy of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and China's manipulation of the global fertilizer market.

 

The U.S. government has focused on the two armed conflicts, but we ignore at our peril China's exacerbation of the wars' effects on the fertilizer supply. Borlaug was awarded the 1970 Nobel Peace Prize, of all categories, because food security is national security. As he liked to say, quoting Lord John Boyd Orr, "You can't build peace on empty stomachs."

 

The White House hasn't ignored the emerging crisis, but it must take urgent and concrete steps to stabilize domestic fertilizer supplies.

 

 Fertilizer price volatility threatens to undermine two pillars of the administration's domestic priorities: controlling inflation, particularly food inflation; and eating more fruits, vegetables and whole grains.

 

Let me set the geopolitical chessboard. Russia is a leading fertilizer exporter, but its domestic needs have taken priority amid the conflict. Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz interferes with petroleum movement and fertilizer shipments. China, a major fertilizer user, has long been the world's second-largest exporter of fertilizer -- until recently. Over the past year, China has begun to pull back on exports to manipulate the market.

 

Chinese producers use American sulfur to manufacture phosphate fertilizers, which supply phosphorus -- one of the three primary plant nutrients along with nitrogen and potassium. Backyard gardeners like me know it as the P in N-P-K.

 

Beginning late last year, China suspended exports of phosphate fertilizers. It then broadened its restrictions on additional fertilizer varieties in March and halted most sulfuric-acid exports beginning in May. Taken together, the suspensions and restrictions have likely affected as much as 40 million metric tons of Chinese fertilizer exports. Largely because of disruptions to petroleum production and sulfur shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, sulfur prices have increased substantially. China's continued uptake of sulfur while banning fertilizer exports has contributed to a doubling of sulfur prices this year alone.

 

Much of the world's sulfur is recovered as a byproduct of oil refining and natural-gas processing. It is then converted into sulfuric acid, which reacts with mined phosphate rock to produce phosphoric acid used to make phosphate fertilizers.

 

China's state-owned Yuntianhua Group, one of the country's largest phosphate-fertilizer producers, depends on sulfur -- the same globally traded raw material China procures from American companies. Yet Beijing's restrictions prevent Yuntianhua and other Chinese producers from exporting phosphate fertilizer. China is benefiting from access to an open global market for raw materials while simultaneously denying that same market access to buyers of its finished fertilizer products.

 

Even in a normal market, this behavior has the potential to distort the cost of fertilizer for American farmers. When it's done by a leading U.S. adversary at the expense of American manufacturers and farmers during a supply crunch caused by Chinese allies, it becomes a casebook example of a national food security threat.

 

We can -- and should -- be free traders. But free trade can't mean allowing Chinese state-owned enterprises to procure critical raw materials from American suppliers while Beijing prevents American farmers from purchasing the resulting fertilizer. We must level the playing field.

 

The Trump administration is right to promote domestic oil and natural-gas production. Natural gas is a critical input for nitrogen fertilizer, while oil refining and gas processing produce much of the sulfur needed for phosphate fertilizer. Energy security and food security are inseparable.

 

If you don't like the price at the pump as a result of Iran's belligerence, you certainly won't like the price at the grocery store as a result of China's exploitation of global conflict and its trade practices.

 

As BMI senior commodities analyst Matthew Biggin told Reuters this year, "China restricts supplies rather than coming to the rescue during global tightness. The export restrictions exist because of their tight domestic balance -- they're prioritizing security and insulating their domestic market from price shocks."

 

Beyond that, China's actions threaten the affordability of our domestic food supply.

 

The White House should take a harder line against China and strengthen our domestic fertilizer supply chain to reduce our vulnerability to the Russia-China-Iran axis.

 

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Mr. Stier is an adviser to the Heartland Institute.” [1]

 

Iran's belligerence? Who did start the war with Iran? We must think harder about our war strategy, if we want to eat.

 

1. A Food Crisis May Be Coming to the U.S. Stier, Jeff.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 29 Aug 2026: A15.