Awkward Situation for Lithuanian Elite: An Uncomfortable Signal Sent to Lithuania from Washington

„The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump is pressuring Lithuania to ease European Union (EU) sanctions against Belarus and allow the transit of Belarusian potash fertilizers through the port of Klaipėda. Washington aims to reduce U.S. dependence on raw materials supplied by Canada and lower fertilizer costs for American farmers. However, such a decision would go beyond mere economic interests—it would also impact the European Union’s broader sanctions policy regarding Belarus, an ally of Russia.

 

According to *Politico*, citing four European officials, John Coale—the U.S. President’s special envoy for Belarus—has reached out to Lithuanian diplomats in recent weeks to explore the possibility of easing restrictions on the transit of Belarusian goods.

 

These restrictions are part of the EU sanctions imposed on the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. The Belarusian leader is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the war against Ukraine.

 

EU sanctions prohibit ports within the bloc from handling Belarusian goods. However, these measures must be renewed every 12 months.

 

Lithuania, which will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union starting next year, could theoretically veto the extension of the sanctions—scheduled for February—thereby allowing them to expire. However, Lithuania is one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters within the EU.

 

Last month, Donald Trump stated that he was working on a “massive deal” with Minsk, under which the U.S. could purchase potash fertilizers from Belarus at a significantly lower price than what American farmers currently pay Canadian companies.

 

Nevertheless, the implementation of such an agreement depends on the feasibility of transporting the fertilizers through Lithuania’s main port in Klaipėda, or other ports in the region.

 

“In recent weeks, Donald Trump’s team has stepped up engagement with the Lithuanians,” a person familiar with the negotiations told the publication. Like other sources, this individual requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of internal discussions.

 

The U.S. State Department did not respond to a request for comment on the situation.

U.S. seeks an alternative to Canada: potash fertilizer prices have risen

 

Farmers worldwide are grappling with surging prices for potash fertilizers. This increase has been driven by growing demand and Western sanctions against Russia—a major global supplier of the raw materials used for these fertilizers.

 

Currently, the United States imports almost all of the potash fertilizers it consumes. Approximately 80 percent of these imports come from Canada. Following the collapse of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada in August—and with both nations continuing to increase tariffs on each other’s goods—the Trump administration has shown growing interest in the possibility of importing potash fertilizers from Belarus. The country controls approximately 20 percent of the global market for these products.

 

This objective also aligns with a broader policy pursued by Donald Trump: easing sanctions on Russia and its allies in an attempt to encourage Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

 

However, such moves by the U.S. have met with strong resistance in Europe. European officials are skeptical of any concessions to Vladimir Putin, fearing that they would only further strengthen the Russian leader and the regimes within his orbit—including the rule of Alexander Lukashenko.

 

"They are applying pressure politely, but we are saying very clearly: hell no," an Eastern European official told *Politico*.

 

"If the Americans cannot learn from history, we must stand our ground," he added.

 

Two Eastern European officials told the publication that J. Coale has been pressuring the Lithuanian government at various levels for over a year—ever since the Trump administration’s envoy first visited Minsk. Another Eastern European official indicated that the U.S. has long been discussing the possibility of supplying Belarusian potash fertilizers to global markets via Klaipėda and other Baltic Sea ports. Among the alternatives under consideration is Riga, the capital of Latvia, which could offer a simpler transport route than shipping the fertilizers through Russia.

 

A European official confirmed that J. Coale had also approached Latvian representatives regarding this matter.

 

A U.S. State Department spokesperson declined to comment on "specific commercial transactions" but emphasized that Washington is exploring opportunities that align with American economic interests and regularly discusses commercial prospects with allies and partners.

 

"We would like to continue regular discussions on how our respective approaches could help advance the commercial interests of both the U.S. and the EU, as well as support humanitarian goals," the official stated. He also noted that Belarus has recently demonstrated "constructive cooperation with the United States."

 

"As President D. Trump has said, the sale of Belarusian potash fertilizers to the United States helps lower costs for American farmers and livestock producers," added the official, who requested anonymity. Klaipėda was the primary export route for Belarusian potash fertilizers

 

Until the US and the European Union, in the early part of this decade, imposed large-scale sanctions on Minsk; previously, about 90 percent of Belarus’s potash fertilizers were exported via the port of Klaipėda.

 

EU member states unanimously agreed to ban the export of Belarusian potash fertilizers through the bloc’s ports, having concluded that A. Lukashenko did not legitimately win the 2020 presidential election and had brutally cracked down on peaceful protesters.

 

The sanctions apply to ports across all 27 EU member states. They can only be lifted if all countries in the bloc unanimously agree to do so.

 

Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022—in which Belarus also participated—Washington and Brussels tightened the sanctions even further.

 

Nevertheless, in March of last year, D. Trump began easing some of the U.S. sanctions against Belarus. This included the lifting of restrictions on the state-owned enterprise "Belarusian Potash Company."

 

D. Trump presented this decision as a measure to "support American farmers" who were facing soaring fertilizer prices following attacks on Iran.

 

This move also followed J. Coale’s mediation efforts, which led to the release of 250 political prisoners. In exchange, Washington partially eased sanctions on Belarus. Europe Reluctant to Yield to Washington’s Pressure

 

For now, European officials show no inclination to follow Donald Trump’s lead by easing sanctions against the regime of Alexander Lukashenko.

 

Yielding to U.S. pressure would be unpopular and politically difficult for the leaders of both Lithuania and Latvia. In both countries, the ruling coalitions collapsed earlier this year.

 

Eastern European officials also fear that easing sanctions would grant Lukashenko greater international legitimacy and more leeway to continue imprisoning political opponents.

 

One European official also questioned whether there would truly be a sufficiently large global market for Belarusian potash fertilizers, given Canada’s dominant position in the sector.

 

"There are many issues here. And, clearly, this is also a divisive topic for the public in Lithuania," he stated."

 

Moving from words to action: the warmongers currently in power in Lithuania are attempting to harm U.S. farmers, President Donald Trump, and starving populations in the Global South by obstructing the expansion of Belarusian fertilizer exports—effectively sinking the port of Klaipėda into the Baltic Sea.