John Deere, a U.S. Icon, Is Undermined by Tariffs and Struggling Farmers

“The tractor maker said that sales were down and that higher metal tariffs would cost it $600 million, while American farmers face dwindling overseas demand for some crops.

 

Josh Enlow buys and sells used tractors every day, filling a vast lot in Tulsa, Okla., with hundreds of agricultural and construction machines.

 

His customer base has shifted recently, as farmers and ranchers who would buy only new machines are now coming to his Enlow Tractor Auction interested in his secondhand equipment.

 

“The increases in new pricing has definitely driven people back to the used market,” Mr. Enlow said.

 

The list price for new tractors rose at least 60 percent over the last eight years, according to the University of Illinois Extension, with some models more than doubling in price, costing at least $250,000 more than they used to.

 

That’s bad news for companies like John Deere, the leading supplier of agricultural machinery in the United States. The company reported a record profit two years ago, but President Trump’s tariffs and trade policies are making the market more challenging and unpredictable for the business and its customers.

 

One of the country’s largest manufacturers is worse off now than it was six months ago. Last month, John Deere said net income in its most recent quarter was down 29 percent from a year earlier. Higher tariffs, primarily on steel but also on aluminum, have cost the company $300 million so far, with nearly another $300 million expected by the end of the year. This summer the company laid off 238 employees across factories in Illinois and Iowa.

 

Yet John Deere is just the sort of manufacturing powerhouse that Mr. Trump says he wants more of in the United States. The company, based in Moline, Ill., has made farm equipment since 1837. Its green-and-yellow tractors, combines and sprayers help farmers feed the country and produce billions of dollars’ worth of crops for export.

 

The company employs 30,000 workers in 60 facilities across the country and said more than 75 percent of its machines were assembled in the United States. Just 25 percent of the components used in its products come from foreign countries, John Deere said.

 

Demand for new agricultural equipment is mostly determined by crop prices. When crop prices are high, farmers flush with cash buy new equipment. When crop prices slump, they’ll hold on to an aging tractor or more strongly consider the used market.

 

Prices are currently low, with corn selling for 50 percent of the highs seen in mid-2022. Soybean prices are down 40 percent over the same time frame.

 

John Deere said that it expected 2025 sales for large agricultural machinery — the source of most of its revenue — to fall 15 to 20 percent and that the malaise would continue into 2026.

 

John Deere declined to comment.

 

On the company’s most recent earnings call, Josh Beal, the director of investor relations, said customers were “operating in increasingly dynamic markets” because of tariffs, high interest rates and a changing global trade environment that “drives caution as they consider capital purchases.”

 

Corn and soybean crop yields are expected to reach near-record highs this fall, according to projections from the Department of Agriculture. While that’s good news if there are plenty of buyers — U.S. farmers exported $13 billion worth of soybeans to China in 2024 — new tariff policies have weakened demand from China.

 

After Mr. Trump announced steep tariffs on Chinese goods this year, China placed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans in March. Soy exports to China are down 51 percent this year, and the country hasn’t made any advance purchases of soybeans for the upcoming harvest. U.S. growers are expected to receive $3.4 billion less for their soybean crop than they did last year, according to the Agriculture Department.

 

For many growers, the prices are so low that they will lose money on each acre planted.

 

“How can companies and farmers plan for the long term when you don’t know what the cost of your inputs will be or what your market will look like in the weeks to come?” asked Tad DeHaven, a policy scholar at the Cato Institute, a think tank that favors free markets. “These businesses, whether John Deere or a craft brewery or anything in between, are trying to navigate this. They are trying to do the best they can to cut costs and to hang in there.”

 

New tractors are one of the largest costs for farmers, so to save money they are choosing to repair their machines or perhaps buy cheaper or less powerful ones.

 

Yet some of John Deere’s woes began before tariff policies shifted. There was a glut of the company’s machines sitting at dealerships at the beginning of last year. In response, the company ran production at its factories well below capacity, laying off more than 2,000 workers. It also offered more attractive financing rates to buyers to clear out inventory. It was supposed to be a short-term expense to fuel a long-term recovery in 2025 and 2026, the company said at the time.

 

“We fundamentally believe that these actions will lead to more favorable cycle dynamics than in previous downturns,” said John May, the company’s chief executive, on an earnings call in August 2024.

 

Instead, sales are now expected to remain soft for the foreseeable future.

 

Kristen Owen, a managing director at Oppenheimer & Company, still thinks 2026 will be a better year for John Deere. The bonus depreciation changes in the recently passed tax and spending law could help raise company sales. The rule allows farmers to immediately receive a large tax break for equipment purchases.

 

And since John Deere’s competitors, such as Kubota, Fendt and Mahindra, manufacture more of their machines abroad, they are expected to be hard hit by tariffs on foreign machinery.

 

The bonus depreciation changes will drive sales, Ms. Owen said. John Deere is doing well in some foreign markets, she added, and its construction equipment business could pick up steam next year.

 

“The expectation is that even if demand is tepid, you still have earnings growth in 2026,” she said.

 

But as long as widespread uncertainty looms, farmers will be hesitant to make expensive purchases. They do not know when, or if, large-scale exports to China will resume, or if a new farm bill would increase subsidies or income support programs. They do not know if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates or if steel prices will remain high.

 

Everybody in the agriculture business is used to hard-to-control risks, as heat, rain, pests and diseases play a huge role in profitability, Ms. Owen said. What is proving even harder to control is what she termed “pen-stroke risk,” the risk that with a strike of a politician’s pen, everything will change again.” [1]

 

1. John Deere, a U.S. Icon, Is Undermined by Tariffs and Struggling Farmers. Draper, Kevin.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Sep 4, 2025.

JAV ikona „John Deere“ kenčia dėl muitų ir sunkumų patiriančių ūkininkų

„Traktorių gamintojas teigė, kad pardavimai sumažėjo ir kad didesni metalų tarifai jam kainuos 600 mln. dolerių, o Amerikos ūkininkai susiduria su mažėjančia kai kurių pasėlių paklausa užsienyje.

 

Josh Enlow kasdien perka ir parduoda naudotus traktorius, užpildydamas didžiulį sklypą Tulsoje, Oklahomoje, šimtais žemės ūkio ir statybos mašinų.

 

Jo klientų bazė pastaruoju metu pasikeitė, nes ūkininkai ir rančininkai, kurie pirktų tik naujas mašinas, dabar lankosi jo „Enlow“ traktorių aukcione, susidomėję jo naudota įranga.

 

„Naujų kainų padidėjimas neabejotinai paskatino žmones grįžti į naudotų traktorių rinką“, – sakė p. Enlow.

 

Pasak Ilinojaus universiteto plėtros tarnybos, naujų traktorių pardavimo kaina per pastaruosius aštuonerius metus išaugo mažiausiai 60 procentų, o kai kurių modelių kainos padidėjo daugiau nei dvigubai ir dabar kainuoja mažiausiai 250 000 dolerių daugiau nei anksčiau.

 

Tai bloga žinia tokioms įmonėms kaip „John Deere“, pirmaujanti žemės ūkio technikos tiekėja Jungtinėse Valstijose. Bendrovė prieš dvejus metus pranešė apie rekordinį pelną. tačiau prezidento Trumpo tarifai ir prekybos politika daro rinką sudėtingesnę ir nenuspėjamesnę verslui ir jo klientams.

 

Vienas didžiausių šalies gamintojų dabar jaučiasi blogiau nei prieš šešis mėnesius. Praėjusį mėnesį „John Deere“ pranešė, kad grynasis pelnas paskutinį ketvirtį, palyginti su praėjusiais metais, sumažėjo 29 procentais. Didesni tarifai, daugiausia plienui, bet ir aliuminiui, bendrovei iki šiol kainavo 300 mln. dolerių, o iki metų pabaigos tikimasi dar beveik 300 mln. dolerių. Šią vasarą bendrovė atleido 238 darbuotojus gamyklose Ilinojuje ir Ajovoje.

 

Vis dėlto „John Deere“ yra būtent tokia gamybos jėgainė, kokios, anot pono Trumpo, Jungtinėse Valstijose norėtų daugiau. Moline, Ilinojaus valstijoje, įsikūrusi bendrovė gamina žemės ūkio įrangą nuo 1837 m. Jos žali ir geltoni traktoriai, kombainai ir purkštuvai padeda ūkininkams išmaitinti šalį ir užauginti milijardų dolerių vertės derlių eksportui.

 

Bendrovėje dirba 30 000 darbuotojų 60 gamyklų visoje šalyje, o daugiau nei 75 procentai jos mašinų buvo surinkta Jungtinėse Valstijose. „John Deere“ teigimu, tik 25 proc. jos gaminiuose naudojamų komponentų yra iš užsienio šalių.

 

Naujos žemės ūkio technikos paklausą daugiausia lemia pasėlių kainos. Kai pasėlių kainos yra aukštos, ūkininkai turi daug pinigų naujai įrangai pirkti. Kai pasėlių kainos krenta, jie laikosi senstančio traktoriaus arba labiau svarstys galimybę rinktis naudotą rinką.

 

Šiuo metu kainos yra žemos, kukurūzai parduodami už 50 proc. 2022 m. vidurio aukščiausių kainų. Sojų pupelių kainos per tą patį laikotarpį sumažėjo 40 proc.

 

„John Deere“ teigė, kad 2025 m. didelių žemės ūkio mašinų – didžiosios dalies jos pajamų šaltinio – pardavimai sumažės 15–20 proc. ir kad šis nuosmukis tęsis ir 2026 m.

 

„John Deere“ atsisakė komentuoti.

 

Per naujausią bendrovės pajamų pranešimą investuotojų ryšių direktorius Joshas Bealas teigė, kad klientai „veikia vis dinamiškesnėse rinkose“ dėl tarifų, didelių palūkanų normų ir besikeičiančios pasaulinės prekybos aplinkos, kuri „verčia juos būti atsargiems svarstant kapitalo pirkimus“.

 

Žemės ūkio departamento prognozėmis, kukurūzų ir sojų pupelių derlius šį rudenį turėtų pasiekti beveik rekordines aukštumas. Nors tai gera žinia, jei pirkėjų yra daug – JAV ūkininkai 2024 m. į Kiniją eksportavo sojų pupelių už 13 mlrd. dolerių – nauja tarifų politika susilpnino paklausą iš Kinijos.

 

Po to, kai ponas Trumpas šiais metais paskelbė apie griežtus tarifus Kinijos prekėms, kovo mėnesį Kinija nustatė atsakomuosius tarifus JAV sojų pupelėms. Sojų eksportas į Kiniją šiais metais sumažėjo 51 proc., o šalis iš anksto neįsigijo sojų pupelių artėjančiam derliui. Pasak Žemės ūkio departamento, tikimasi, kad JAV augintojai už sojų pupelių derlių gaus 3,4 mlrd. dolerių mažiau nei pernai.

 

Daugeliui augintojų kainos yra tokios žemos, kad jie praras pinigus už kiekvieną apsodintą akrą.

 

„Kaip įmonės ir ūkininkai gali planuoti ilgalaikę perspektyvą, kai nežinote, kokia bus jūsų sąnaudų kaina ar kaip atrodys jūsų rinka ateinančiomis savaitėmis?“ paklausė Tad DeHaven, politikos mokslininkas iš Cato instituto, analitinio centro, kuris palaiko laisvąsias rinkas. „Šios įmonės, nesvarbu, ar tai „John Deere“, ar amatininkų alaus darykla, ar bet kas tarp jų, bando įveikti šią situaciją. Jos stengiasi daryti viską, ką gali, kad sumažintų išlaidas ir išsilaikytų.“

 

Nauji traktoriai yra viena didžiausių išlaidų ūkininkams, todėl norėdami sutaupyti pinigų jie renkasi remontuoti savo mašinas arba galbūt pirkti pigesnes ar mažiau galingas.

 

Vis dėlto kai kurios „John Deere“ bėdos prasidėjo dar prieš pasikeitus tarifų politikai. Praėjusių metų pradžioje prekybos salonuose buvo per daug bendrovės technikos. Reaguodama į tai, bendrovė savo gamyklose leido gaminti gerokai mažiau nei pajėgumais, atleisdama daugiau nei 2000 darbuotojų. Ji taip pat pasiūlė pirkėjams patrauklesnes finansavimo palūkanų normas, kad išvalytų atsargas. Tai turėjo būti ilgalaikės išlaidos, siekiant paskatinti ilgalaikį atsigavimą 2025 ir 2026 m., tuo metu teigė bendrovė.

 

„Mes iš esmės tikime, kad šie veiksmai lems palankesnę ciklo dinamiką nei ankstesnių nuosmukių metu“, – 2024 m. rugpjūčio mėn. vykusiame pelno skelbimo pokalbyje sakė bendrovės generalinis direktorius Johnas May.

 

Vietoj to, dabar tikimasi, kad pardavimai artimiausioje ateityje išliks maži.

 

Kristen Owen, „Oppenheimer & Company“ generalinė direktorė, vis dar mano, kad 2026-ieji bus geresni metai „John Deere“. Neseniai priimtame mokesčių ir išlaidų įstatyme numatyti premijiniai nusidėvėjimo pakeitimai galėtų padėti padidinti bendrovės pardavimus. Ši taisyklė leidžia ūkininkams nedelsiant gauti didelę mokesčių lengvatą įrangai įsigyti.

 

Kadangi „John Deere“ konkurentai, tokie kaip „Kubota“, „Fendt“ ir „Mahindra“, daugiau savo mašinų gamina užsienyje, tikimasi, kad juos smarkiai paveiks užsienio technikos tarifai.

 

Preminiai nusidėvėjimo pakeitimai padidins pardavimus, sakė ponia Owen. Ji pridūrė, kad „John Deere“ gerai sekasi kai kuriose užsienio rinkose, o jos statybinės įrangos verslas kitais metais gali įgauti pagreitį.

 

„Tikimasi, kad net jei paklausa bus vangi, 2026 m. vis tiek bus pelno augimas“, – sakė ji.

 

Tačiau tol, kol tvyro didelis netikrumas, ūkininkai dvejos dėl brangių pirkinių. Jie nežino, kada ar iš viso vėl atsinaujins didelio masto eksportas į Kiniją, arba ar naujas žemės ūkio įstatymas padidins subsidijas ar pajamų rėmimo programas. Jie nežino, ar Federalinis rezervų bankas sumažins palūkanų normas, ar plieno kainos išliks aukštos.

 

Visi žemės ūkio versle yra įpratę prie sunkiai kontroliuojamų rizikų, nes karštis, lietus, kenkėjai ir ligos vaidina didžiulį vaidmenį pelningumui, sakė ponia Owen. Dar sunkiau kontroliuoti tai, ką ji pavadino „tušinuko rizika“ – rizika, kad politiko plunksnos brūkštelėjimu viskas vėl pasikeis.“ [1]

 

1. John Deere, a U.S. Icon, Is Undermined by Tariffs and Struggling Farmers. Draper, Kevin.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Sep 4, 2025.

Why Hamas Refuses to Give Up: news analysis

 

They learned from Israel’s history. The Nakba, meaning "catastrophe" in Arabic, refers to the mass displacement and dispossession of Palestinians during the 1948 Palestine war.

 

It resulted in the expulsion or flight of more than 750,000 Palestinians and the destruction of over 500 villages and urban neighborhoods.

 

 

Background and causes

 

    Zionism and colonialism: For decades before 1948, the Zionist movement promoted the "transfer" of the Palestinian population to create a Jewish state. The British-controlled Mandatory Palestine was a multiethnic society with a predominantly Arab population before mass Jewish immigration increased tensions.

    UN Partition Plan: In November 1947, the UN General Assembly approved a plan to partition Palestine into separate Arab and Jewish states, with Jerusalem under international control.

        The plan allocated 55% of the territory to the proposed Jewish state, even though Palestinians constituted two-thirds of the total population and owned the majority of the land.

        The Arab Higher Committee and Arab League rejected the plan, arguing it violated the right of self-determination.

        Most Zionist leaders accepted the plan, viewing it as a step toward further expansion.

    Outbreak of war: Following the UN resolution, fighting broke out between Zionist militias and Palestinian Arabs. The intensity increased in May 1948 with the end of the British Mandate, the declaration of the State of Israel, and the entry of neighboring Arab armies.

 

Events of the Nakba

 

    Systematic expulsion: Zionist paramilitary groups, and later the Israeli military, conducted large-scale attacks to expel Palestinians and achieve a Jewish majority. Most historians now agree that expulsions, violence, and fear were the primary causes of the mass exodus.

 

    Tactics of fear and violence: Israeli forces used psychological warfare, including radio broadcasts and whispering campaigns, to instill panic. They also committed massacres in villages such as Deir Yassin, which caused widespread fear and prompted many to flee.

 

    Destruction of villages: More than 500 Palestinian villages were systematically depopulated and destroyed during and after the war to prevent refugees from returning. Palestinian properties were widely looted by Israeli soldiers and civilians.

 

Consequences and legacy

   

    You cannot step into the same river twice. Now the Palestinians are fighting nonstop.

    Now whatever the Israelis do in similar way, goes online for everybody to see.

    The refugee crisis: Over 750,000 Palestinians became refugees. They and their descendants now number millions and live in camps in neighboring countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan, as well as in the West Bank and Gaza.

    Fragmented society: The Nakba shattered Palestinian society, displacing its political and intellectual leadership and breaking down social structures.

    Ongoing displacement: The Nakba did not end in 1948. Palestinians continue to be displaced through Israeli policies, and the events of 1948 are seen as foundational to the ongoing conflict.

    Right of return: The UN General Assembly passed Resolution 194 in December 1948, which resolved that refugees wishing to return to their homes should be permitted to do so. However, Israel has rejected the Palestinian right of return, stating it would compromise its identity as a Jewish state.

    Commemoration: Palestinians commemorate the Nakba annually on May 15, the day after Israel's Independence Day. In 1998, Yasser Arafat officially designated it a national day of remembrance. For Palestinians, the Nakba remains a central part of their collective memory and national identity.

They say : “No more Nakba.”

 

“Analysts say that despite its vast losses in Gaza, Hamas believes it can hold out for a deal that ensures its survival.

 

Israel has killed thousands of Hamas’s fighters, taken out most of its senior military command and destroyed much of its arsenal and underground tunnel network.

 

The country’s relentless military campaign has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, cities have been reduced to rubble, and people have struggled daily to find enough food, water and electricity.

 

And yet Hamas has refused to surrender. The group wants to secure its future in Gaza, but its unwillingness to give up to Israel and disarm is also rooted in its ideology.

 

Since the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which ignited the war in Gaza, the group’s leaders have acknowledged that the resulting Israeli counterattack has caused enormous destruction. But they have said it is a “price” Palestinians must pay for their ultimate freedom.

 

In interviews, some Hamas leaders have said that the group’s calculation was less about defeating Israel on the battlefield, and more about drawing the government into an intractable conflict, one that isolates it diplomatically and undermines its international support. Eventually, they say, Israel will be compelled to realize that its policies toward Palestinians are not sustainable.

 

“Surrender, as Israel and America are calling for it, is not in Hamas’s dictionary,” said Khaled al-Hroub, a professor at Northwestern University in Qatar who has written books about the group.

 

Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the leader of Hamas’s military wing, said recently that if he cannot get what he described as an honorable deal to end the war with Israel, then the conflict would become a war of liberation or the group would face “martyrdom,” according to a senior Middle Eastern intelligence official familiar with Mr. al-Haddad’s thinking.

 

What Hamas considers to be an “honorable deal” is an agreement that could lead to the end of the war and enable the group to continue wielding power in Gaza.

 

Hamas has previously agreed to temporary cease-fires with Israel in part to provide relief to people in Gaza. But it has firmly rejected ending the war on terms set by Israel, which has demanded the group disarm and send its leaders into exile, and has shown a willingness to tolerate the ongoing suffering of civilians in pursuit of the deal that it wants.

 

There are no suggestions that Hamas’s position is shifting. This week, it released a statement reiterating that it was ready to accept a deal that would see the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza in exchange for a number of Palestinian prisoners, an end to the war and a withdrawal of Israeli forces.

 

But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas by force or dismantle it through negotiation, and has rebuffed any deal on the end of the conflict that would leave the group intact.

 

Civilians in Gaza have paid the highest price for the continuation of the war.

 

During the October attack, some 1,200 people were killed and about 250 others were abducted, according to Israeli authorities. While Hamas has celebrated the attack, more than 60,000 people in Gaza have been killed in the ensuing war, said the local health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

 

The seemingly irreconcilable positions of Hamas and Israel on how to end the war suggest that the fighting will continue until one side is forced to compromise.

 

And Hamas believes that Israel will eventually come to terms with an agreement that does not require the group to give in, Palestinian political analysts say.

 

“They know that the continuation of the war is very costly, but they’re hopeful that they’ll get a deal they can live with, if they remain patient and steadfast,” said Esmat Mansour, a Palestinian analyst who spent years in Israeli prisons with several top Hamas leaders.

 

“They see the internal and external pressure on Israel to end the war and they know that Israel can’t free the captives without them,” he added. “So they’re saying to themselves, ‘Why should we surrender when we can get something better?’”

 

Still, Mr. Mansour said, Hamas may conclude that to maintain some power it needs to make difficult concessions, like suspending military recruitment and training and putting its weapons in storage, potentially overseen by a third party.

 

Ibrahim Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst close to Hamas, said the group needed “an exit” from the war. “The problem is Israel has closed all the exits,” he said.

 

Hamas, at least publicly, has refused to entertain discussions about abandoning its weapons or sending its commanders into exile. Husam Badran, a senior Hamas official, framed the group’s refusal to surrender as safeguarding Palestinians.

 

“We’re dealing with an extremist government that carried out massacres at the expense of our people and that is still plotting the killing, slaughter and expulsion of our people,” he said in a text message. “We can’t stop defending ourselves and our people in light of the impotence of the international community and the clear American complicity.”

 

“Without a clear political agreement that protects the Palestinian people and its land, the resistance will continue its fight,” Mr. Badran added.

 

Another Hamas official, Taher El-Nounou, recently suggested that the war could ultimately turn in Hamas’s favor, a result that appears unlikely given Israel’s military advantage. Asked on Russia Today’s Arabic-language channel whether carrying out the 2023 attack had been the right decision, he said nobody could judge the results of the war while it was still ongoing.

 

“Before the Normandy landing, Germany was occupying almost all of Europe,” he said, referring to a costly but decisive battle during World War II. “After that landing, the situation changed.”

 

Residents of Gaza are facing the reality that the war could drag on into a third year.” [1]

 

Hamas tunnels still exist in Gaza, and sources from 2025 indicate that a substantial portion of the network remains intact despite Israeli efforts to destroy it. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have destroyed many tunnels and uncovered entrances, but estimates suggest a large percentage of the network is still functional.

 

Following an escalation into direct conflict in June 2025, Iran inflicted significant damage on Israel through missile strikes, despite Israeli and allied air defenses intercepting the majority of projectiles.  During the 12-day conflict in June 2025, Iranian ballistic missile attacks killed 28 Israelis.

 

 

1.  Why Hamas Refuses to Give Up: news analysis. Rasgon, Adam.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Sep 5, 2025.