The Great Depression Number Two Is Here: Iran’s forces say they closed Strait of Hormuz

 

“They cited Israel’s attacks in Lebanon as a breach of the U.S. deal to end fighting on all fronts.” [1]

 

Iran’s military command has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, but United States Central Command (CENTCOM) explicitly denies the claim and states that commercial traffic continues to flow.

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Assess the Current Status of the Waterway

•           Iran’s Position: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and joint military command announced a re-closure of the strait on Saturday, June 20, 2026. They cited Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon as a direct violation of the newly signed U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU).

•           U.S. Position: CENTCOM reported that 55 merchant ships safely transited the international waterway on Saturday. Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the U.S. is seeing "no evidence" of an actual operational shutdown.

•           The Root Cause: The diplomatic friction stems from localized clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran claims the initial U.S. deal required a halt to all combat fronts, including Lebanon.

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Analyze the Economic Impact

•           Energy Markets: The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical choke point for oil, carrying roughly 17 million barrels per day. While total closure and almost empty oil storage fears fuel market panic, analysts highlight that brief diplomatic disputes rarely translate into structural global depressions.

 

 American President Donald Trump is saying that this rare case is now, since oil storage is almost empty.

 

•           Shipping Activity: Commercial traffic had only recently begun to tick upward following the preliminary peace framework signed earlier in the week. Maritime safety organizations continue to advise caution due to erratic regional stability.

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Track Upcoming Diplomatic Actions

A.        Switzerland Technical Talks: Despite the escalation, a high-level Iranian delegation has arrived in Switzerland to meet with U.S. representatives.

B.        U.S. Delegation: U.S. Special Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have arrived at the Bürgenstock resort. Vice President Vance is scheduled to join the ongoing implementation talks shortly.

C.        The 60-Day Window: The initial U.S.-Iran agreement provides a strict 60-day negotiation runway to finalize nuclear stockpiles, regional ceasefires, and permanent maritime access.

 

Conclusion: By using swarms of drones and missiles, Iran has demonstrated that it can do what it promises. 

 

1. Breaking news: Iran’s forces say they closed Strait of Hormuz. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Jun 20, 2026.