“Wars are judged by how they end, not by successes along the way.
President Trump has done more to cripple Iran's nuclear apparatus than his predecessors, but that may not matter. The memorandum of understanding sets the stage for an eventual nuclear revival, since what's been blown up can be rebuilt as long as enough oil flows, the regime's illicit dual-use import network remains operational, and U.S. and Israeli intelligence fails against Iranian vigilance.
This war's apparent denouement -- fear of damage to energy infrastructure in the Arab Gulf states, declining global oil reserves and, most consequentially, Washington's refusal to take and hold the Strait of Hormuz -- will militate against the rebirth of Mr. Trump's belligerency later. An American victory now would require Mr. Trump to make a military commitment, with its U.S. and Arab losses, and blockade Iran for as long as needed. American politics, if not the president's temperament, work against such boldness.
Tehran will deliberately disrupt the cease-fire to demonstrate Washington's timidity. It may close and then open the strait to put pressure on its adversaries, as it did recently over Lebanon. The agreement is probably too advantageous to be completely scuttled, but its limits can be stretched. Americans, who usually think the world revolves around economics, consistently misapprehend how revolutionaries embrace tumult. The leaders in Tehran believe they have triumphed.
How the Iranian regime will likely win the war is a testament to its guile, ruthlessness and determination. The Islamic Republic's evolving strategic doctrine was first honed at home. Last year's 12-day war left the regime with a nuclear program buried under rubble and an embarrassing imbalance between its defensive capacity and its enemies' offensive strength. The theocracy feared an insurrection -- and met it head-on in January. During the protests, the mullahs shelved their traditional playbook of targeted violence. The nationwide bloodbath should have signaled to outsiders that the regime, from top to bottom, would ferociously resist any coercion.
Exported abroad, Tehran's new doctrine was dubbed "offensive deterrence." In response to a massive American-Israeli bombing campaign, the regime expanded the geography of the conflict, targeting the Gulf states and closing the strait. Iran showed scant concern for the energy interests of China -- a great-power ally once thought capable of imposing restraints on the Islamic Republic.
Already, tributes are flowing. Even before nuclear negotiations have begun, Washington has waived restrictions on Iranian oil sales for 60 days. This cash-and-carry policy has a regional dimension. The memorandum of understanding reads: "The Islamic Republic of Iran will conduct dialogue with the Sultanate of Oman to define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, in discussion with other Persian Gulf littoral states in line with the applicable international law and sovereign rights of coastal states of the Strait of Hormuz." The Sunni Gulf kingdoms, which have always relied on the West to fend off menacing neighbors, are enjoined to come to terms with Persians.
Javan, a mouthpiece of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, has spelled out the parameters of the new order. "In the regional arena, it became clear to neighboring countries that they had no choice but to engage positively and constructively with Iran," according to the newspaper on June 15. "From now on, the Persian Gulf will be influenced by political and security arrangements centered on Iran." This means that the Gulf states will both pay for protection and conduct their foreign policy in a manner consistent with Tehran's preferences.
Throughout the process, the Iranian regime proved steadfast with its ally, Hezbollah, by bringing Lebanon into its agreement with Washington. If granted peace, Hezbollah will likely replenish its arsenal and redeploy its operatives south. It is a sign of the times that an American vice president would threaten a loyal ally for striking a terrorist organization bent on its destruction.
A notably depressing provision of the agreement reads: "The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity and to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs." All despotic governments seek such recognition from Western democracies. Mr. Trump's acknowledgment must be particularly satisfying for Tehran given that he confidently called for regime change five months ago.
Perhaps more self-defeating, Mr. Trump has lost the fulcrum of his leverage -- his unpredictability. He crossed lines that previous presidents dared not traverse only to end up where they were all along: He is another American politician hoping to induce the Iranian regime toward pragmatism by dangling financial rewards. His administration now speaks of hard-liners and pragmatists as if it can detect fissures in the regime and manipulate them to its advantage. That has been the fool's gold of American statesmen since Jimmy Carter's presidency.
The Islamic Republic has achieved what Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi only dreamed of -- effective control of the Gulf. The shah wanted to police the waterway to prove his bona fides to the West. The Islamic Republic intends to prove the opposite -- that at last the West has been broken.
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Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.” [1]
1. How Iran Plans to Consolidate Its Victory. Gerecht, Reuel Marc; Takeyh, Ray. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 June 2026: A15.
