“The industry is small but important, both unionists and
companies warn. China has a paramount role. The danger of new geopolitical
dependencies is growing.
The crisis in shipbuilding in Germany is coming to a head.
In just one year, the industry has lost 16 percent of its jobs.
Only 14,000
people are currently employed in the German shipyards, fewer than ever before.
"We have to stop this downward spiral, otherwise we will lack the basis of
a functioning value chain," warns Daniel Friedrich, district manager of IG
Metall Coast, and he warns against misjudging the small shipyard industry:
"It's not a question of whether we continue traditions. It is about the
geopolitical ability of Germany and Europe to act.”
In fact, orders have been falling all over Europe for years,
while global shipbuilding demand is rising sharply.
85 percent of all orders
last year went to China and Korea, where the maritime industry receives
considerable subsidies, warns not only the trade union but also the industry
association for shipbuilding and marine technology VSM.
Even Japan, which
maintains high domestic demand, no longer has a 10 percent market share, while
Europe as a whole still has 4 percent. According to VSM Managing Director
Reinhard Lüken, China's influence is not just limited to the ships. 96 percent
of the containers that are so important for world trade now come from China.
Worrying substance consumption
"The strength is still there," said Lüken in view
of the rush of trade visitors to the SMM, the world's leading trade fair for
shipbuilding in Hamburg this week. "But we have to be careful."
Against the background of the expected strong growth in demand, the years of
substance consumption of shipbuilding capacities are worrying. The politically
set framework conditions would have to be corrected "in order to avoid an
irreversible loss of ability".
Lüken refers above all to the importance of the maritime
economy in the diversification of energy and raw material procurement. "In
Korea, the shipyards are on their knees in view of the many orders for LNG
ships," reports Thorsten Ludwig, who analyzes shipbuilding for the Agency
for Structure and Personnel Development (AGS) on behalf of IG Metall. In the
field of wind energy, too, the music plays elsewhere, he makes clear.
Ships in the national interest?
In the US, ships for offshore projects are categorized as
“national interest”, while not much is happening here. In fact, in the context
of the insolvency of the MV shipyards, the question was raised several times as
to whether converter stations for offshore wind farms could be built on the
Baltic Sea coast instead of cruise ships. All the shipyards have now been sold,
but the issue isn't completely off the table yet - because the Bundeswehr,
which bought one of the shipyards for its naval arsenal, doesn't need the
entire site, at least not for the time being.
There are talks with the Belgian company Smulders, which
wants to build converter platforms there, confirmed IG Metall district manager
Friedrich: "The federal government must pull itself together and make a
decision in the next few weeks," demands the trade unionist. He fears that
although there are great future opportunities here, value creation will
ultimately migrate back to Asia because there is no reliable industrial policy.
The shipbuilders also see the business with wind energy on
the high seas as a great opportunity. "It's a huge market," confirms
VSM boss Lüken. It's not just about converter stations, crane ships are also
needed to set up the generators, cable layers are needed, ships are needed to
transport the crew. There are significant opportunities associated with this.
Cautious optimism
According to the AGS industry survey, such ships have not
yet been ordered from German shipyards, but at the same time it is clear that
optimism is burgeoning again. While a third of those surveyed were pessimistic
about the order situation in the past two years, this only applies to 16
percent, while 27 percent expect the order situation to improve soon.
More than
half of the shipyards are working on expanding the product portfolio, ranging
from emission-free ship types to unmanned submarines for explosive ordnance
disposal.
In naval shipbuilding, hope is primarily pinned on the
Bundeswehr's special assets and the generally growing defense budget. In this
market segment, an increase in personnel is to be expected. For example, TKMS
(Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems) bought the Wismar site from the MV insolvency and
is planning to hire additional employees there. The trade unionists register
positively that competence at MV Werften is generally to be expected to be
maintained and expanded. It is worrying that only 46 percent of the shipyard
employees are still working in production."
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