"Birth rate in Lithuania: the most gloomy forecasts are
coming true. It is announced that we did not experience the birth rate outbreak
predicted after the quarantine. Two years ago, 25 thousand children were born
in Lithuania, last year - 23 thousand, 2 thousand less. This downward trend has
been observed since 2019. Demographers says that the birth rate in Lithuania
has reached its lowest point and exceeded all gloomy forecasts.
Vytautas Magnus University (VDU) Sociology Department
professor Aušra Maslauskaitė told LNK that she refrains from making dramatic
assessments of this situation for the time being.
"The fact that we have demographic tension, or the fact
that our demographic situation is not the kind that would give us a lot of
optimism - is true. And this has been characteristic of Lithuania for almost 30
years. We have all the demographic processes that are negative.
We've had undesirable mortality trends, we've had a lot of
migration, and we've had low enough birth rates that we've been a little more
optimistic until about 2016-2017. But after 2018-2019, it again took such a
direction, which is worrying," A. Maslauskaitė told LNK.
The professor of the Department of Sociology at VMU said
that when it comes to the birth rate, we are not talking about absolute
numbers, but certain indicators. She said that a similar "fertility
hole" was recorded in the early 2000s. But now, according to A.
Maslauskaitė, it is very difficult to say what the reasons are for this.
"Usually this is the total fertility rate, the average
number of children per woman of childbearing age. Last year, this rate was
1.34, which is about the number of children per woman.
And in 2016, this
indicator was 1.7. and it was certainly high enough in the context of EU
countries.
Lithuania survived the previous birth trough in the early
2000s, when this rate was also very low - about 1.2. And we see that now we are
back to that low again. Today, we cannot say exactly what it is - whether it is
the beginning of a long-term trend, or a short-term effect, a reaction to the
reality of the pandemic," said she to LNK.
Speaking about possible hypotheses - why this happened, the
professor of the Department of Sociology at VMU said that there are several
possible reasons.
"One thing that really may have had an impact - we
experienced restrictions during the pandemic, a decrease in marriages, people
got married less. But in Lithuania, this family formation model is still
typical, when people have children only when they get married," she said.
A. Maslauskaitė urged not to give in to fatalism and not to
start thinking that nothing can be done.
"The experience of many countries, where the history of
family policy is much longer than in Lithuania, shows that something can be
done. Of course, we cannot expect a miracle - that the indicator I mentioned
will jump to 2. But measures must be taken to prevent it from falling even
further," she said.
A. Maslauskaitė stated that one of such measures is the
means of combining family and work.
"We have a lot of tools that are available. Some have
the opposite effect - for example, long childcare leave, they do not encourage
women to return to the labor market, but on the contrary - push them more
towards being only a mother," said the professor.
She emphasized that research in many countries has already
proven that monetary benefits do not solve these problems.
"They solve the problems of poverty, but this in no way
contributes to the improvement of the birth rate of children," said A.
Maslauskaitė."
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą