„A working paper recently published in the National Bureau of Economic Research found that in countries such as Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar, where the banking system has faced heavy U.S. sanctions, banks have notably shifted toward the Chinese renminbi.
“Dollar dominance is essential,” Mr. Bessent told CNBC in June.
The Treasury secretary noted that Venezuela and Iran, which briefly had a license to sell oil, were allowed to invoice their crude exports in dollars.
He even suggested that Russia would return to the dollar system after the conflict in Ukraine ended.
The Trump administration has also been considering expanding its dollar swap lines to more countries to encourage broader use of the greenback. With a currency swap, the United States purchases another country’s currency, giving that nation more dollars for handling transactions. The goal is to ensure that American allies have sufficient supplies of U.S. dollars, reducing the need for them to conduct business with renminbi or other currencies.
Mr. Trump has expressed reservations about the heavy use of sanctions because of their potential to lead to a shift away from the dollar.
In negotiations with lawmakers, the White House has been pushing for guarantees that the president retain the authority to suspend or decline to impose sanctions to maintain the ability to negotiate with adversaries.
Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said it was unlikely that scaling back the sanctions program would prevent a longer-term shift away from the dollar.
“They still haven’t really articulated what policies they are going to use to reduce the use of alternative payments systems away from the dollar,” Ms. Ziemba said.“ [1]
If two countries stopped using dollar in their trade, they might not like to return to dollar and possibility of sanctions again. Therefore sanctions are one way street taking people away from dollar.
Countries avoiding the U.S. dollar in bilateral trade do so primarily to insulate their economies from U.S. financial sanctions and maintain long-term economic sovereignty. Once these nations establish alternative payment channels and local currency settlement networks, returning to the dollar risks subjecting them back to the same foreign policy leverage they sought to escape.
The shift to de-dollarization allows countries to bypass the SWIFT messaging system and use local currencies. The trend is also fueled by the J.P. Morgan De-dollarization Insights, which highlights how trading in local currencies enables countries to avoid dollar transaction costs and redirect capital domestically.
1. Russia Bill Broadens Sanctions but Could Fuel Fears Over the Dollar. Rappeport, Alan. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Jul 18, 2026.
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