“The global economy has less capacity to cushion the blow from a reduction in energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran resume hostilities, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The impact of the conflict on the global economy has been smaller than feared when it began in February, largely because energy prices didn't rise as sharply as many economists anticipated.
In a blog post, the Fund said that reflected the availability of buffers in the form of increased supplies from other oil producers and drawdowns from reserves, as well as the ability of businesses and households to quickly switch to alternative sources. But those buffers have limits that would be tested by an extended closure of the strait, the IMF warned.
"What cushioned the initial blow this time is that energy markets had room to maneuver and absorb it," the Fund said. "As tensions flare again in the Strait of Hormuz, that room is now smaller and shrinking further as spare capacity has been deployed, demand has compressed, and inventories have been drawn down."
Between early March and late May, the IMF calculates that the strait closure removed more than 1.1 billion barrels of crude from the energy market, the equivalent to about 10 days of global consumption.
The Fund said moving to alternative energy sources would help reduce the global economy's vulnerability to future disruptions to key oil routes.” [1]
1. World News: IMF Sees Reduced Cushion Against Oil Disruption. Hannon, Paul. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 July 2026: A7.
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