“Israel pounded Iran's military in June's 12-day war, but the regime emerged from the bruising conflict with much of its arsenal of thousands of ballistic missiles intact, which gives it the ability to inflict real damage on the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East.
Tehran has an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles that can reach across the region and strike as far as Israel. It also has significant stockpiles of short-range missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases in the Gulf and ships in the straits of Hormuz, although estimates of those missiles vary. Iran also has significant stockpiles of antiship cruise missiles and torpedo boats, as well as many drones that can threaten U.S. ships.
That arsenal gives it the potential to hit targets around the Middle East, meaning any attack by the U.S. could quickly escalate despite President Trump's preference for decisive use of force that doesn't turn into a regional conflict.
"Tehran may be weak, but its robust missile force means it is still lethal," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.
The U.S. has moved the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and more warplanes into the Middle East to give Trump options for an attack, which would come after weeks of protests that presented the Iranian regime with the greatest threat to its hold on power in years before they were violently put down.
Iranian officials have warned repeatedly in recent days that they would respond aggressively to any attack. Its militia allies in Iraq have also said they could join in any response.
The U.S. has a range of assets it would need to defend in the Middle East. They include around two dozen declared land-based military facilities, from Turkey to Kuwait, and around 40,000 troops, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday said there were 30,000 to 40,000 U.S. troops stationed in eight or nine facilities in the region within reach of Iranian missiles. Some troops were moved from U.S. bases this month when Trump started to consider a strike on Iran.
"All are within the reach of an array of thousands of Iranian" drones and "short-range ballistic missiles that threaten our troop presence," Rubio told U.S. lawmakers.
In response to past U.S. attacks, Iran has struck U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar. Some analysts say U.S. forces in Jordan are also vulnerable to attack. Iran's allies, the Houthis in Yemen, have attacked sites in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in recent years.
Iran would likely aim its weapons at the U.S. assets closest to its shores to make use of its large supply of short-range missiles, military analysts said, as well as Gulf countries that are close U.S. allies.
Iran has "enough short-range missiles to strike at U.S. bases in the Gulf in volumes that we and the Gulf states might be stretched to defend against," said Daniel Shapiro, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under former President Joe Biden. The Iranians also have a robust capacity to hit Israel over several days, he said.
The U.S. has Patriot and Thaad antimissile systems stationed throughout the region and is bringing in more, which could help blunt any Iranian attack. But those systems will have a much larger area to defend than Israel did when it fought a war with Iran in June.
"A significant portion of those missiles can reach their target," said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.
Trump has said a decision remains in flux on whether to strike Iran but U.S. officials have told The Wall Street Journal that the White House wants any strikes to deliver a decisive blow to the Iranian regime.” [1]
1. World News: Iran Can Still Strike Back --- Tehran has arsenal of thousands of missiles, has refined tactics for using them. Laurence Norman in Berlin; Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 29 Jan 2026: A6.
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