"There have been growing calls in Washington foreign-policy circles for a "pivot to Asia," a strategic shift of American military, diplomatic and economic resources away from other parts of the world and toward the Indo-Pacific.
With China as the main U.S. adversary, the case for the pivot is obvious enough. But it's a move that comes with costly trade-offs. The U.S. is a global power and has global interests. A pivot can work only if America's allies tend to those interests in its absence.
Advocates of a pivot have hoped to shift focus to the Indo-Pacific while U.S. allies pick up the slack in Europe. Over the past year, many European states have responded appropriately to Russia's belligerence. Eight North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies are contributing a greater share of their gross domestic products to Ukraine than the U.S. is. The British and the Eastern Europeans have especially distinguished themselves.
There are laggards, however, the major one being Germany. There was a brief moment of hope in February, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany "will now -- year after year -- invest more than 2% of our gross domestic product in our defence."
But since then Germany has fallen back into old habits. Mr. Scholz's spokesman offered only a "cautious expectation" last week that Germany will hit its defense spending target by 2025. The buildup is kaput.
This announcement undermined any chance of a safe U.S. pivot away from Europe. For the moment, the Kremlin's relative power is declining as the Ukrainians slog it out with the Russian military.
But Russia still has formidable capabilities, and its ability to rebound from catastrophe is legendary.
Without German leadership, other European nations would have a much harder time acting as a counterbalance to Russia. For now, the U.S. needs to keep a foot in Europe.
Germany's renege could not come at a worse time. The security situation in the Indo-Pacific is dire and growing more so. China's military capabilities are increasing, and the U.S. is not keeping pace. Beijing is acting aggressively toward America's regional allies. Last month Japanese and South Korean fighter jets responded to a joint patrol of Chinese and Russian bombers flying close to their air defense zones. In August Chinese missiles landed in the sea near Japan and its exercises looked to many like a dress rehearsal for a blockade of Taiwan. This week China sent its largest sortie of bombers in two years into the Taiwan Strait.
The situation is so dire that Japan is doubling its defense budget. Although a more capable Japanese military is welcome, Tokyo is rearming because it is losing confidence in its American partner. The Japanese military plans to stockpile munitions and equipment in case of a sudden emergency and acquire new technologies such as long-range missiles. Even the Buddhist Komeito Party isn't standing in the way. There are few signs more ominous than pacifists greenlighting an arms buildup.
The U.S. must keep one foot in Europe by necessity. The only way to meet the moment in Asia is to follow Japan's lead and launch a defense buildup of our own. The problem is that, given its current budget and weapons stock, the U.S. is hard-pressed to cover both areas. Any high-demand systems that it sends to Ukraine, such as the Patriot missile, can't protect locations in the Indo-Pacific. While extra F-35 fighter squadrons are moving to Europe to bolster NATO, the permanent fighters in Okinawa are being replaced with a rotational force. This risks creating gaps in American fighter coverage in a volatile part of the world, calling our regional leadership into question.
Though Congress just authorized an increase in the defense budget, it barely keeps pace with inflation and leaves the U.S. military stretched too thin. Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger recently warned that no one should "be comfortable with where we are or the rate at which we're moving" in the Indo-Pacific. As the region destabilizes, the U.S. needs to send more forces there. But that doesn't mean drawing back from Europe, which would also hurt our interests. The only solution is to meet greater challenges with greater resources.
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Mr. Watson is associate director of the Hudson Institute's Center for the Future of Liberal Society." [1]
Grandma told you not to attack China and Russia at the same time.
1. Germany Shirks Its Defense Pledge, Imperiling the Asia 'Pivot'
Watson, Mike. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 16 Dec 2022: A.17.
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