“Will AI really replace millions of knowledge workers?”
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman admits that previous predictions were too pessimistic,
and removing the human element has proven harder than expected.
At the same time, companies around the world are preparing
for job cuts.
At the Accelerate AI technology conference in Sydney, Sam
Altman made a statement that surprised and even shocked many observers. The
OpenAI CEO has publicly stated that his previous predictions about how quickly
AI would displace knowledge workers were exaggerated. Altman believes that “the
human element has proven to be much more resilient,” and the need for
face-to-face interaction in professional relationships is a strong resistance
to algorithms.
The paradigm of instantaneous change has been abandoned
Other influential market players take a similar position.
David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, told The New York Times that the
worst-case scenario is “overstated.” In his view, technology is strictly
evolutionary—its goal is to free workers from repetitive, routine tasks and
redirect people’s attention to more complex tasks. While Goldman Sachs’
economic analyses suggest that automation could take up to a quarter of current
work hours over the next decade, this process is expected to lead to the emergence
of new roles related to system maintenance.
Skepticism about revolutionary upheavals is also supported
by specific macroeconomic indicators. A report by Oxford Economics shows that
job losses directly related to AI accounted for only a small portion (4.5%) of
all layoffs in the US in the first eleven months of last year.
But Altman’s optimistic outlook and his words about “calling
off the apocalypse” on the job market stand in stark contrast to Mercer’s
latest Global Talent Trends Survey. An analysis of the sentiment of nearly
12,000 employees suggests that the data is likely incomplete.
A picture of deep, structural transformation is emerging
among decision-makers, HR managers and investors around the world. As many as
99% of executives expect significant job losses due to the development of AI in
the next two years. In addition, 98% of organizations are planning major
changes to their operating structures.
Most CEOs believe that reshaping the workplace to adapt to
automation is the most profitable investment, but only 32% say their teams have
the skills needed to effectively interact with machines.
Pat Tomlinson, CEO of Mercer, warns against recklessly
replacing traditional tools with new technologies without changing business
models.
The discrepancy between Altman’s reassuring tone and the
radical plans of executives is partly explained by research from Harvard
Business School. An analysis of more than 19,000 job postings found that since
the debut of generative artificial intelligence, the demand for workers
performing repetitive, structured tasks has fallen by 13%. On the other hand,
the number of job postings for analytical, technical and creative positions has
increased by a fifth. This means that algorithms are not eliminating entire
professions, but are dynamically changing the structure of labor market demand,
favoring so-called complementarity or close cooperation between people and
machines.
Jensen Huang actually protests against the view that
artificial intelligence is the main culprit of unemployment. The CEO of Nvidia
called this approach a journalistic shortcut. Huang sharply criticizes managers
who use technological innovations solely to reduce labor costs, instead of
raising ambitions and developing new areas of activity. In his opinion, the
real threat to workers is not the algorithm itself, but other people who
acquire the skills to use it effectively.
Despite the lies of technology leaders, the financial sector
has already taken radical steps. The British bank Standard Chartered officially
announced that by 2030 it will reduce the number of employees in its company by
15%, which will mean the elimination of more than 7,000 positions. The bank’s
CEO, Bill Winters, has made it clear that he intends to replace “less valuable
human capital” with technology. Meanwhile, Japan’s Mizuho Bank plans to cut
about 5,000 jobs over the next decade. HSBC is also facing a major challenge.
The bank has already appointed a chief artificial intelligence officer and is
considering a possible 10% cut in its workforce.”
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