„President Trump came to office promising an end to forever wars. He now finds himself bogged down in talks with Iran, with no end in sight.
It is a stalemate that favors Tehran's well-worn playbook to draw out negotiations and put off any concessions that cross its red lines, geopolitical analysts said.
Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding to halt the war, open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. military blockade on Iran. From there, the two sides agreed to discuss much more intractable issues, such as Iran's nuclear program, with a resolution in 60 days.
Two weeks after the memorandum took effect, the nuclear talks haven't started in earnest. Instead, the U.S. and Iran are relitigating who controls the strait, whether Israel must stop its war in Lebanon and the release of assets frozen by U.S. sanctions -- all issues that were meant to be already resolved.
This one step forward, two steps back pattern to negotiations is familiar to veterans of nuclear talks with Iran. The 2015 deal struck by President Barack Obama took years to negotiate, with numerous starts and stops, and ultimately never extracted concessions from Tehran that crossed its red lines.
Richard Nephew, a former senior State Department official who spent years negotiating with Iran, says there should be no surprise that Iran has pushed off any real negotiations on the nuclear issue and engaged the U.S. and the mediators in litigating the terms of the ceasefire.
"The history of Iran nuclear talks going back to 2003 shows that the Iranians are very capable of putting off sensitive and important nuclear issues while they try and negotiate on terms and topics they prefer," he said.
Protracted talks pose a potential problem for Trump, who in 2020 posted on social media: "Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!" But a return to war also contradicts positions he has publicly taken against open-ended conflict.
With the White House leaning heavily against resuming the war, that raises the specter of a protracted stalemate during which talks continue indefinitely or tail off. Iran and the U.S. would live with the bare minimum of the interim deal terms, which includes a freeze on new U.S. sanctions, the status quo on Iran's damaged nuclear program and oil-sanctions relief for Tehran.
"Iran is perfectly happy to substitute process for progress," said Alan Eyre, a former senior State Department negotiator with Iran who is now at the Middle East Institute. "They realize that at least in the short term, time is on their side."
Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were hoping to revive stalled peace discussions when they arrived in Qatar this week before moving on to the question of how to limit Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The talks recently were set back when the two sides began fighting again for three days.
Tehran was incensed when Oman organized a U.S.-backed transit route without Iran's permission. The Iranians responded by resuming their attacks on shipping, prompting the first U.S. strikes on Iran since the initial April ceasefire before both sides agreed to stop fighting and restart talks.
Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged this week that talks might fail, but Trump has told aides that even if the negotiations drag on past the 60 day deadline, he isn't inclined to go back to war.
"The president's not going to send our military back in unless he has to, unless there's a clearly defined purpose for it," Vance told reporters on Wednesday. "If they try to start rebuilding their nuclear program, if they plan to start shooting at commercial vessels again, that's going to change our calculus, but right now, what the president has said is, go and make a deal."
Israel's decision to strike Beirut in June prompted Iran to retaliate in defense of its militant proxy Hezbollah, temporarily halting the cessation of hostilities and leading to yet another closure of the Hormuz strait.
The interim deal does set out a few important conditions for the rules of the game until a final accord is agreed on. That is supposed to happen by Aug. 18 but negotiations can be extended indefinitely if both sides agree.
During the talks, the two sides agreed not to attack the other and maintain a regional ceasefire. The U.S. begins removing its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran is to allow traffic in the strait to return to pre-war levels. The terms of how the strait is managed is left to negotiations.
Critically, the two sides agreed "to maintain the status quo" on nuclear and sanctions issues.“ [1]
1. World News: Trump Risks Forever Talks With Tehran --- Iran's playbook involves drawn-out negotiations, delays to many concessions. Norman, Laurence; Cloud, David S; Faucon, Benoit. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 July 2026: A6.
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