Irano didelio tikslumo raketų ir dronų spiečiai: TVF mato sumažėjusią apsaugą nuo naftos tiekimo sutrikimų

„Pasaulio ekonomika turi mažiau galimybių sušvelninti smūgį, kurį sukelia energijos tiekimo per Hormūzo sąsiaurį sumažėjimas, JAV ir Iranui atnaujinus karo veiksmus, trečiadienį pareiškė Tarptautinis valiutos fondas.

 

Konflikto poveikis pasaulio ekonomikai buvo mažesnis, nei baimintasi, kai jis prasidėjo vasarį, daugiausia dėl to, kad energijos kainos nekilo taip smarkiai, kaip tikėjosi daugelis ekonomistų.

 

Tinklaraščio įraše Fondas teigė, kad tai atspindi buferių prieinamumą – padidėjusį tiekimą iš kitų naftos gamintojų ir išgaunant naftą iš rezervų, taip pat įmonių ir namų ūkių gebėjimą greitai pereiti prie alternatyvių šaltinių. Tačiau TVF perspėjo, kad šie buferiai turi ribas, kurias išbandytų ilgesnis sąsiaurio uždarymas.

 

„Šį kartą pradinį smūgį sušvelnino tai, kad energijos rinkos turėjo erdvės manevruoti ir ją absorbuoti“, – teigė Fondas. „Įtampai vėl paūmėjus Hormūzo sąsiauryje, ta erdvė dabar yra mažesnė ir toliau mažėja, nes buvo panaudoti laisvi pajėgumai, paklausa suspausta, o atsargos sumažintos.“

 

TVF skaičiuoja, kad nuo kovo pradžios iki gegužės pabaigos sąsiaurio uždarymas iš energijos rinkos pašalino daugiau nei 1,1 milijardo barelių žalios naftos, o tai atitinka maždaug 10 dienų pasaulinio suvartojimo.

 

Fondas teigė, kad perėjimas prie alternatyvių energijos šaltinių padėtų sumažinti pasaulio ekonomikos pažeidžiamumą būsimiems pagrindinių naftos tiekimo maršrutų sutrikimams.“ [1]

 

1. World News: IMF Sees Reduced Cushion Against Oil Disruption. Hannon, Paul.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 July 2026: A7.

Iranian Swarms of High Precision Missiles and Drones: IMF Sees Reduced Cushion Against Oil Disruption

 

 

“The global economy has less capacity to cushion the blow from a reduction in energy supplies moving through the Strait of Hormuz as the U.S. and Iran resume hostilities, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

 

The impact of the conflict on the global economy has been smaller than feared when it began in February, largely because energy prices didn't rise as sharply as many economists anticipated.

 

In a blog post, the Fund said that reflected the availability of buffers in the form of increased supplies from other oil producers and drawdowns from reserves, as well as the ability of businesses and households to quickly switch to alternative sources. But those buffers have limits that would be tested by an extended closure of the strait, the IMF warned.

 

"What cushioned the initial blow this time is that energy markets had room to maneuver and absorb it," the Fund said. "As tensions flare again in the Strait of Hormuz, that room is now smaller and shrinking further as spare capacity has been deployed, demand has compressed, and inventories have been drawn down."

 

Between early March and late May, the IMF calculates that the strait closure removed more than 1.1 billion barrels of crude from the energy market, the equivalent to about 10 days of global consumption.

 

The Fund said moving to alternative energy sources would help reduce the global economy's vulnerability to future disruptions to key oil routes.” [1]

 

1. World News: IMF Sees Reduced Cushion Against Oil Disruption. Hannon, Paul.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 July 2026: A7.

Vance Ramps Up Criticism of Israel

 

“WASHINGTON -- Vice President JD Vance accused elements of the Israeli government of being behind a campaign to shape U.S. public opinion about the Iran war and undermine talks to end the conflict.

 

"There are some people within their system, we know beyond a shadow of a doubt, who are manipulating and trying to change American public opinion to keep the war going on indefinitely," Vance told podcaster Joe Rogan this week. "Not toward any objective, but just indefinitely."

 

The Vance allegation marked an escalation in an increasingly public rift between Washington and its closest Mideast ally. Vance, who helped negotiate last month's Iran truce, described what he called a foreign-influence campaign to derail the diplomatic effort.

 

Israel has designated hundreds of millions of dollars to shore up U.S. support for the war and improve its image worldwide, with a $45 million lobbying contract going to a former Trump campaign manager, Brad Parscale. Vance referenced a Time Magazine article that suggested Israel used some of that money to pay online influencers who attacked Vance. A person involved in the contract said no money was used to criticize Vance or the truce.

 

"When I open up the pages of Time magazine and I see that there's a literal foreign influence campaign being funded to tank the very deal that I was pursuing, and oh by the way, many of the people who were receiving that money were actually attacking me in completely dishonest ways. You know, my response to that is, 'Well, go to hell,'" Vance said.

 

"Claims that I attacked the MOU or the Administration are false," Parscale wrote on social media, referring to the ceasefire agreement with Iran.

 

A Vance spokesman didn't respond to requests for comment. A spokeswoman for the Israeli embassy in Washington declined to comment.” [1]

1. World News: Vance Ramps Up Criticism of Israel. Andrews, Natalie; Bergengruen, Vera; Wegmann, Philip.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 16 July 2026: A6.