Oil Prices Rise as U.S. and Iran Discuss Deal to Suspend Gulf Attacks

“Oil prices edged higher on Monday as traders assessed the state of an uneasy cease-fire in the Persian Gulf. An American official said the United States and Iran had agreed to halt attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that the hostilities of recent days might not escalate into a full resumption of war.

 

A U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss ongoing negotiations, said the United States and Iran had agreed to allow commercial vessels to transit the strategic waterway while continuing talks on the existing memorandum of understanding. Iran has yet to confirm the latest agreement.

 

The cease-fire had appeared to be on shaky ground after an Iranian drone strike on a cargo ship on Thursday. The United States responded a day later by targeting Iranian air-defense sites and other military infrastructure. In turn, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had launched missiles and drones over the weekend at a U.S. naval base in Bahrain and an air base in Kuwait.

 

The number of ships navigating the strait dropped steadily through the weekend.

 

U.S. and Iranian officials are expected to hold talks on Tuesday in Qatar, according to a social media post by President Trump.

 

Oil creeps higher.

 

    The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, ticked up almost 1 percent on Monday to more than $73 a barrel for September delivery, the most actively traded contract. Prices remain near prewar levels, where they returned last week after a series of declines.

 

    West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, rose more than 1 percent to around $70 a barrel.

 

Stocks gain.

 

    The S&P 500 rose around half a percent when the market opened for trading in the United States on Monday.

 

    Stocks in Asia, where countries import vast quantities of oil and gas, were mixed. Shares in Taiwan were up 1 percent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose nearly 1.6 percent. South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI fell 0.2 percent.

 

    In Europe, the Stoxx 600, a broad index that tracks the region’s largest companies, was up around 0.1 percent.

 

Gasoline prices fall slightly.

 

    Gas prices fell again on Monday, dropping by a penny to a national average of $3.86 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. Still, gas prices have risen 30 percent since the war began.

 

    Gas prices don’t move in lock step with crude, usually trailing increases or drops by a few days.

 

    The average price of diesel slipped to $4.86 per gallon on Monday, up nearly 30 percent since the start of the war.

 

What they are saying: ‘A new source of price pressure is emerging.’

 

    Investors barely registered the brief resumption of hostilities over the weekend, Geoffrey Yu, a market strategist at BNY, wrote in a note. Attention has turned to U.S. labor market data, which will be released Thursday, and to the European Central Bank’s forum in Sintra, Portugal.

 

    “The inflationary impulse from the Iran conflict is fading, but a new source of price pressure is emerging,” he wrote. The global A.I. expansion is intensifying competition for critical minerals and industrial materials, he added, creating constraints that are likely to put pressure on central banks.” [1]

 

1. Oil Prices Rise as U.S. and Iran Discuss Deal to Suspend Gulf Attacks. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Jun 29, 2026.