The Roots and Consequences of the Polish-Zelensky Conflict

“President Volodymyr Zelensky is becoming more demanding, less talkative, succumbing to hubris, and getting into unnecessary arguments, even with important neighbors like Poland.

 

Historical Memory and Present Pragmatism

 

The biggest disagreements arise over Ukraine’s decision to name a military unit after the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). In Poland, the UPA is considered the main force responsible for the 1943-1945 massacres (genocide) in Volhynia and Eastern Galicia.

 

Most historians estimate that between 70,000 and 100,000 Polish civilians were killed.

 

Several thousand Ukrainians died in subsequent reprisals. Ukraine acknowledges that serious crimes were committed, but considers the deaths to be the result of a mutual conflict between Poles and Ukrainians, rather than a unilateral act of ethnic cleansing and massacre. victims.

 

Zelensky angered Warsaw by naming a military unit after the UPA.

 

Polish President Karol Nawrocki stripped Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle, Poland’s highest state award, saying Ukraine could not expect full support if it ignored historical issues. Zelensky, in turn, returned the award. Three former Ukrainian presidents have also refused the Order of the White Eagle, and several Ukrainian officials have refused other Polish awards.

 

Zelensky accused Polish politicians of trying to profit from the dispute ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections and has decided not to attend a major post-war reconstruction conference in Poland. Calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to de-escalate the dispute have had no effect.

 

I find it difficult to understand Zelensky’s decision to escalate the dispute with Poland. Since all member states of the European Union (EU) must act unanimously to approve the accession of a new member, any member state can effectively block the country’s membership by refusing to agree to the negotiations or ratify the accession treaty.

 

Poland has serious reasons to delay Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Experts claim that if Ukraine were admitted to the EU under current rules, subsidies to Polish farmers could theoretically be reduced by around 15-20%, although most experts believe that this scenario is unlikely. Ukraine would most likely receive a long transition period, the Common Agricultural Policy would be reformed, or the overall EU budget would be increased.

 

The worst-case scenario of losses for Polish farmers would not become a reality, but the losses would still not be small, and Ukrainians would be held responsible for them, so Poland would delay Ukraine’s efforts to join the EU.

 

In addition, Poland is sensitive, believes that the big EU countries do not treat it with enough respect, and will resist any, in its opinion, stronger pressure from the bigger EU countries.”