U.S. Tab to Boost Agriculture Is Rising

“Uncle Sam is slated to fork over more money than ever to help ease American farmers' economic woes.

 

The Agriculture Department this year estimated that direct payments to farmers would hit $44 billion in 2026. That meant government payments could account for more than a quarter of projected net farm income, a measure of farmers' profits [1].

 

That was before President Trump on Wednesday asked Congress to approve $11 billion in funding, largely to help farmers deal with effects from the war with Iran. If approved, government payments to farmers this year could reach a record.

 

Government funding has played a bigger role supporting farm incomes over the past decade, with trade war-related payouts during Trump's first and second terms; rescue funding through the Covid-19 pandemic; and checks to help farmers deal with low crop prices. During this year's conflict in the Middle East, farmers have had to shell out more cash for fuel to run equipment and fertilizer for planting.

 

Farmers' trade groups have pushed for more aid, saying it is vital to keep American agriculture afloat. But some economists and industry analysts are raising concerns about the stepped-up government payments, saying it isn't clear how much is required to maintain U.S. agricultural production.

 

"It is no secret that farm country is struggling, and this temporary economic support will go a long way to provide farmers with economic stability as we look forward to the harvest season," said Scott Metzger, president of the American Soybean Association and an Ohio farmer.

 

Farmers growing corn and soybeans had one of the largest harvests in history last year and are on pace for another bumper crop this year, the USDA said. The harvests have fueled a grain glut, pushing commodity prices down and farm income along with it.

 

Planters of rice, cotton and other crops have struggled for years. The cattle business has been a bright spot for the farm economy with many ranchers hauling in record sums owing to a shortage of cattle on pastures.

 

Net farm income was estimated to be $153.4 billion this year before the latest aid plan, slightly down from 2025 levels, the USDA has forecast. But the total would be higher than the 20-year average.

 

The government payments, including those for conservation efforts and safety-net programs when market prices for crops fall below certain levels, would likely prop up farm income.

 

The payments helped stave off a financial crisis in the farm economy by keeping incomes stable and spurred a run-up in valuations of farmland despite the difficult market, said Scott Irwin, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. "We've become really addicted to these ad hoc payments," he said. "It's survive and advance."

 

The farm economy relies on the government in ways beyond direct payments. For example, the U.S. mandates help guarantee demand for commodities, such as corn being blended into ethanol. In March, the Trump administration increased the required amount of soybean oil that goes into biomass-based diesel fuel, boosting prices. Trump officials have said stronger policies can help farmers stand on their own. Expanding policies regarding biofuels could help farmers benefit from gains in productivity in raising crops, Deputy Agriculture Secretary Stephen Vaden said at The Wall Street Journal's Global Food Forum in June.

 

Some economists and analysts said the government aid is keeping inefficient farmers in business and motivating growers to keep planting beyond what the market needs.

 

"Low prices have to cure low prices," said Susan Stroud, an agriculture analyst and founder of No Bull Agriculture, a market research and consulting firm. "What we're doing is ultimately encouraging more production."

 

Many farmers don't want more government checks but can't turn them down, said Chuck Read, a fifth-generation farmer near Princeton, Ill.

 

Continued government support has motivated poor savings and spending habits among older farmers who should be saving during times when commodity prices are high, said Read, 74 years old.

 

"I think they've hurt us more than they've helped us," he said about government bailouts to farmers. "Even though farm country is pro-Trump still, this is socialism stuff."” [2]

 

 

1. How big part of projected net farm income, a measure of farmers' profits, could government payments in EU countries account for?

 

Government payments—primarily from the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—account for an average of one-third (33%) of total agricultural income across EU countries. For some specific farm types and regions, this figure regularly exceeds 50% of profits.

Subsidies act as a crucial stabilizing safety net, but their exact proportion varies significantly depending on the country, farm size, and commodity.

Breakdown by Country

Dependence on public funds varies widely across the EU. While country-level averages fluctuate based on market conditions, historical data trends show:

•          Lower dependency (under 25% of income): Countries like the Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, and Malta rely least on subsidies for overall agricultural income.

 

•      Higher dependency (40% to over 50% of income): Countries like Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden heavily rely on public support. In some Nordic and Baltic states, total government subsidies can even surpass 100% of reported family farm income in certain years, meaning the farms operate at a loss without them.

 

Structural Variations

•          By Farm Size: Support is heavily concentrated. Roughly 70% of direct payments go to medium-sized farms (5 to 250 hectares), while large farms with over 250 hectares account for over 20% of payments. Conversely, the top 1% to 10% of wealthiest recipients claim a disproportionately large share of total subsidy funds in several member states.

•          By Commodity: Livestock sectors (particularly beef and sheep) have a much higher reliance on subsidies to remain profitable compared to horticulture or intensive livestock systems.

2. U.S. News: U.S. Tab to Boost Agriculture Is Rising. Thomas, Patrick.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 29 June 2026: A4.