India will not become a new China for two reasons:

 

America wants to protect its labor from competing cheap Indian labor, and India does not open up to competition from China, complicating supply chain formation for multinationals:

"New Delhi -- As host to foreign ministers from the Group of 20 nations last week, Narendra Modi played the traditionally neutral role of an Indian prime minister, refusing to take sides between Russia and the U.S.

Beneath its professed neutrality, though, India has begun pivoting westward. This has less to do with Russia, where India has longstanding ties, than with China, which both India and the West increasingly see as a principal adversary.

This pivot is visible in India's closer security cooperation with Australia, Japan and the U.S. in the so-called Quad. Potentially as important, the pivot is also showing up in trade policy.

India's trade barriers have long been among the highest of major economies. Its average "most favored nation" applied tariff in 2021 stood at an elevated 18.3%. That's actually up from 2014, a result of Mr. Modi's efforts to encourage domestic and foreign companies to manufacture more in India.

Yet, while keeping its MFN tariffs high, India since 2021 has embarked on a series of negotiations to reduce barriers with selected partners. Last year, free-trade deals with the United Arab Emirates and with Australia came into force, the first such deals in roughly a decade. Negotiations on deals with the U.K., Canada and the European Union are all well advanced.

The high MFN tariff is aimed at "nontransparent economies who are dumping really low-quality, substandard goods at really low prices, which is hurting the Indian economy and Indian manufacturing," Piyush Goyal, India's minister of commerce and industry, said in an interview, in a reference to China. "The tariffs are not meant to be a detriment, ideally, to . . . Europe or America or Canada or Japan or Korea. We are looking at having more trading relationships, bilaterally or collectively, with the developed world with whom we want more and more open borders."

In other words, India wants more protection from China, and freer trade with everyone else, much like the U.S.

Trade advocates, often disappointed by India in the past, are cautious about this latest opening. "It is definitely a positive step by India," said Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "The question is, how far are they willing to go?"

The deals to date still spare many sectors deemed sensitive by India. But, as with Mr. Modi's domestic reforms, his external liberalization needs to be judged relative to India's traditions, in which nonalignment and protectionism were virtually hard-wired. During the movement for independence from the U.K. in the early 1900s, Indians would boycott British imports in favor of homemade products, or Swadeshi. Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first prime minister, pursued a policy of import substitution under which imports routinely required licenses.

India began to dismantle the "license raj" in the early 1990s. Still, India found its access to foreign markets compromised as the U.S. and Europe pursued regional trade deals with their neighbors, and then by China's admission into the World Trade Organization in 2001, said Suman Bery, vice chairman of NITI Aayog, an Indian government think tank. "India gained less than its partners did," he said.

Trade liberalization stalled by the mid-2000s. Mr. Bery said India's renewed interest in trade reflects the growing international success of Indian firms and the Indian diaspora. "They have proven themselves in the most competitive environment, and so we should have that confidence ourselves," he said.

India also wants less dependence on China. In 2019, it dropped out of negotiations with 15 other Asia-Pacific nations that led to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, or RCEP, over concerns Chinese imports would squeeze out Indian manufacturers at home.

India is using its presidency of the G-20 to promote itself as a trusted partner that, unlike China, is a democracy and doesn't compel foreign companies to share their technology or ownership with local companies.

Western leaders are also eager to expand economic ties, despite India's refusal to join Western condemnation of Russia or its $60 price cap on Russian oil imports.

India's leaders long stuck to nonalignment because they were wary of American hegemony, grateful for Russia's support since the 1970s in India's rivalry with Pakistan, and fearful of driving Russia into China's arms, said Harsh Pant, vice president of Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based international relations think tank.

Meanwhile, India's historical tensions with China have intensified since 2020 when 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in a clash along the countries' disputed border in the Himalayas. India has banned hundreds of Chinese smartphone apps, including TikTok, and restricted Chinese investment into Indian companies.

India's economic pivot away from China and toward the West faces obstacles. By raising restrictions on Chinese imports and staying out of RCEP, India has made itself less attractive to global value chains.

And the biggest prize in India's pursuit of freer trade with the West, the U.S., remains elusive. For President Biden, expanding access to the U.S. market, even for geopolitical partners, is contrary to his "worker-centric" trade policy. India is participating in the less formal Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

Mr. Goyal said he would "love" to discuss a free-trade agreement with the U.S. but for now sees no congressional bipartisan support. Nonetheless, he predicted, the U.S.-India relationship will be "a very important geopolitical anchor on which peace and growth both will rest." [1]

1. U.S. News -- Capital Account: India, Wary of China, Seeks Trade With West
Ip, Greg.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 07 Mar 2023: A.2.

„E-dviračių“ akumuliatorių gaisrai kelia įspėjimų bangą

"Elektrinio dviračio pamišimas, kuris kilo per„ Covid-19“ karantinus, dabar turi tamsią pusę: nekontroliuojami ir mirtini gaisrai iš ličio jonų baterijų, kurios juos maitina. Gaisrų skaičius sparčiai auga, sukeliantis ugniagesių pareigūnų įspėjimus.

 

     Atrodo, kad gaisrai koncentruojami Niujorke, kur Niujorko miesto priešgaisrinės tarnybos duomenimis, pernai išaugo daugiau, nei dvigubai. Gaisrai iš e-dviračių ir kitų vadinamųjų mikromobilumo prietaisų, tokių, kaip elektriniai motoroleriai, sužeidė 40 žmonių ir šiais metais nužudė du, pranešė priešgaisrinė tarnyba.

 

     „Tai yra nepaprastai pavojingi prietaisai, jei jie yra nereglamentuojami ar naudojami netinkamai“, - vasario pabaigoje spaudos konferencijoje sakė Niujorko priešgaisrinės komisarė Laura Kavanagh.

 

     JAV duomenimis, 2022 m. JAV importavo apie 1,1 mln. E-dviračių, palyginti su 880 000, o praėjusiais metais-450 000-praneša pramonės prekybos grupė „Light Electric Transporecice Association“. Vartotojai, kuriuos sujaudino aukštos benzino kainos, taip pat plūsta į elektrinius paspirtukus.

 

     Daugelis el. dviračių gaisrų prasideda, kai žmonės juos įkrauna per naktį, leisdami jiems perkaisti prieškambariuose ar šalia durų, netinkamai veikiančios, baterijos sukelia greitai judančius gaisrus, kurie per kelias minutes gali sulaikyti žmones jų namuose. Naudotos baterijos arba modifikuotos baterijos yra ypač pažeidžiamos. Cheminiai gaisrai, išleidžiantys kenksmingas dujas, dega taip karštai ir taip greitai juos labai sunku suvaldyti.

 

     Praėjusių metų balandį Mauricio Orozco įsijungė į el. dviratį su atnaujinta baterija savo dviračių parduotuvėje Cutler įlankoje, Fla. Po 12 valandų dviratis davė liepsną ir sunaikino parduotuvę. Ugnis judėjo taip greitai, kad per 20 sekundžių išjungė jo apsaugos kameras, sakė p. Orozco. Niekas nebuvo sužeistas. Dviračių parduotuvių pramonės grupės apklausoje 10% parduotuvių savininkų teigia, kad patyrė gaisrą ar kitą akumuliatorių perkrovimo incidentą.

 

     „Tai tikrai baisu“,-sakė p. Orozco apie „E-dviračių“ gaisro pavojus. "Tai yra žmonių namai, kurie sudeginami".

 

     Savaitgalį ličio jonų akumuliatorius sukėlė gaisrą „Bronkse“, kuris sužeidė septynis žmones, sakė pareigūnai, po vasario pabaigos įvykio tame pačiame Niujorko miesto mieste, kuris sužeidė keturis. Sausio mėn. 18 vaikų buvo sužeisti „Queens“ dienos priežiūros centre nuo liepsnos, kurią priešgaisrinės tarnyba teigė, kad buvo pradėta nuo „e-dviračių baterijos“.

 

     Akumuliatorių gaisrai išlieka užsispyrusi prietaisų, tokių kaip nešiojamieji kompiuteriai, išmanieji telefonai ir planšetiniai kompiuteriai, problema. Kaip elektros transporto priemonių pardavimo padidėjimas, jie taip pat sukelia problemų. Vasario mėn. „Ford Motor Co.“ sustabdė savo „F-150 Lightning“ elektrinio sunkvežimio gamybą ir gabenimą po to, kai akumuliatorius užsidegė kokybės patikrinimo metu.

 

     JAV ir kitur mokslininkai kuria pažangiausias baterijas, kurios, jų teigimu, yra atsparios gaisrams, tačiau ši technologija išlieka eksperimentinė, kai kalbama apie dideles baterijas, reikalingas elektromobiliams.

 

     Gaisrai turi daugybę priežasčių, įskaitant netinkamą konstrukciją, prastas medžiagas ir pažeidimus, kuriuos sukelia staigūs smūgiai. Bendra priežastis yra įtrūkimų, susidarančių tarp dviejų akumuliatoriaus, katodo ir anodo, įtrūkimų, dėl kurių yra trumpas jungimas ir greitai įkaista-pavojinga grandininė reakcija, vadinama termine pabėgimu.

 

     Pramonės prekybos grupės nešiojamųjų įkraunamų akumuliatorių asociacijos vykdomasis direktorius George'as Kerchneris teigė, kad kita gaisrų priežastis yra dviračių vartotojai, bandantys taisyti ar pakeisti akumuliatorių. „Jis sakė, kad, modifikuodamas akumuliatorių ir atnaujindamas jį ar pakeisdami kai kurias saugos funkcijas, tai yra naujas akumuliatoriaus dizainas“, kuris galėtų trumpai jungtis ir sukelti gaisrą.

 

     Niujorko priešgaisrinė tarnyba bendradarbiauja su JAV vartotojų produktų saugos komisija, siekdama ištirti priežastis. Ponia Kavanagh vasario 10 d. laiške CPSC pirmininkui Aleksandrui Hoehnui-Saricui spaudė Komisiją imtis papildomų priemonių reguliuoti prietaisus, įskaitant konfiskavimą uostuose, kuriuose importuojami produktai, kurie neatitinka minimalių pramonės standartų.

 

     Niujorko miesto taryba ketvirtadienį balsavo už įstatymų leidybos paketą, kad sustiprintų e-dviračių ir motorolerių priešgaisrinę saugą bei jas maitinančias ličio jonų baterijas. Teisės aktai apribotų prietaisų, kurie neatitinka tam tikrų saugos standartų, pardavimą ir nuomą. “[1]

 

1. U.S. News: E-Bike Battery Fires Prompt Warnings
Patterson, Scott.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 07 Mar 2023: A.3.

 

E-Bike Battery Fires Prompt Warnings

"The electric-bike craze, which took off during Covid-19 lockdowns, now has a dark side: uncontrollable and deadly fires from the lithium-ion batteries that power them. The number of blazes is rising rapidly, triggering warnings from fire officials.

The fires appear to be concentrated in New York City, where the number of blazes more than doubled last year to 216, according to the New York City Fire Department. Fires from e-bikes and other so-called micromobility devices such as electric scooters have injured 40 people and killed two this year, the fire department said.

"These are incredibly dangerous devices if they are unregulated or used improperly," New York Fire Commissioner Laura Kavanagh said at a press conference in late February.

The U.S. imported about 1.1 million e-bikes in 2022, up from 880,000 in 2021 and 450,000 the previous year, according to estimates by the Light Electric Vehicle Association, an industry trade group. Consumers, pummeled by high gasoline prices, are also flocking to electric scooters.

Many e-bike fires start when people charge them overnight, allowing them to overheat. Left in hallways or near doors, the malfunctioning batteries cause fast-moving fires that can trap people inside their homes in minutes. Secondhand batteries or those that have been modified are particularly vulnerable. The chemical fires, which release harmful gases, burn so hot and so quickly they are extremely difficult to put out.

Last April, Mauricio Orozco plugged in an e-bike with a refurbished battery at his bike shop in Cutler Bay, Fla. After 1<frac12> hours, it burst into flames, torching the shop. The blaze moved so rapidly that it disabled his security cameras within 20 seconds, Mr. Orozco said. No one was injured. In a survey by the bike-shop industry group, 10% of store owners say they experienced a fire or other battery-overheating incident.

"It's really scary," Mr. Orozco said about e-bikes' fire hazards. "This is people's homes that are going to get burnt."

Over the weekend, a lithium-ion battery caused a fire in the Bronx that injured seven people, officials said, following an incident in late February in the same New York City borough that injured four. In January, 18 children were injured at a Queens day-care center from a blaze the fire department said was started by an e-bike battery. London's transportation regulator in 2021 banned e-scooters, but not e-bikes, from its network because of fires in their lithium-ion batteries.

Battery fires remain a stubborn problem for devices such as laptops, smartphones and tablets. As electric-vehicle sales surge, they are causing problems, too. Ford Motor Co. in February halted production and shipments of its F-150 Lightning electric truck after a battery caught fire during a quality check.

Scientists in the U.S. and elsewhere are developing cutting-edge batteries that they say are resistant to fires, but the technology remains largely experimental when it comes to the large batteries required for EVs.

The fires have a range of causes, including faulty construction, subpar materials and damage caused by sudden impacts. A common cause comes from cracks that form between the two electrodes of the battery, the cathode and anode, which make it short-circuit and rapidly heat up, a dangerous chain reaction known as thermal runaway.

George Kerchner, executive director of the Portable Rechargeable Battery Association, an industry trade group, said another cause of the fires is bike users attempting to repair or tamper with the battery. "By modifying the battery and refurbishing it or changing some of the safety features, that's a new battery design" that could short-circuit and cause a fire, he said.

New York's fire department has been working with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission to investigate causes. Ms. Kavanagh in a Feb. 10 letter to CPSC Chairman Alexander Hoehn-Saric pressed the commission to take further steps to regulate the devices, including seizing at ports imported products that fail minimum industry standards. The commission has recalled defective products, a CPSC spokeswoman said.

Accurate tallies of fires across the U.S. are hard to come by. The CPSC in December said it received reports of at least 208 micromobility fires or overheating incidents from 39 states from Jan. 1, 2021, through Nov. 28, 2022, a figure that is lower than the number of fires reported last year in New York City alone.

The New York City Council voted Thursday on a legislative package to strengthen the fire safety of e-bikes and scooters and the lithium-ion batteries that power them. The legislation would restrict the sale and rental of devices that fail to meet certain safety standards." [1]

1. U.S. News: E-Bike Battery Fires Prompt Warnings
Patterson, Scott.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 07 Mar 2023: A.3.