Changing Face of War Poses New Tests for Military Powers --- Flexibility is key as drones, AI and cheap missiles upend how battles are waged

 

“The way wars are fought is changing fast, as new technologies upend military doctrines on everything from procurement to executing operations.

 

But just how radical will this transformation be in years to come?

 

 And are the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested by the U.S., its allies and rivals in new tanks, planes and warships going to become the equivalent of buying horses and arrows on the eve of machine guns and howitzers?

 

The conflict in Ukraine was initially dismissed by many Western military leaders as a conflict that didn't hold many lessons for them because the U.S. and allies, should they fight, would have air superiority and powerful precision munitions for a quick, devastating blow.

 

The failure of the U.S. and Israel to inflict a strategic defeat on a middle power like Iran, after expending a large share of these precision munitions, has undermined that notion.

 

Drone-centered warfare, and with it the accessibility of abundant cheap precision munitions, is here to stay. So is the spread of other capabilities, such as long-range ballistic and cruise missiles, that used to be the preserve of major powers and, even for them, were too expensive for mass use.

 

Meanwhile, the development of autonomous systems guided by artificial intelligence heralds an even more momentous turn.

 

In the wars of today, what used to be the safe rear hundreds of miles away from the front line is now contested -- be it at U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf or Russian military installations far from Ukraine.

 

The proliferation of cheap sensors has also made any massed maneuver, such as an armored thrust akin to the U.S. assault on Iraq in 2003, much more difficult because any concentration of troops can be spotted quickly and attacked well before reaching the battlefield.

 

In defense ministries and military headquarters around the world, everyone is paying attention -- and trying to figure out what lessons to draw.

 

"The character of warfare is changing fundamentally," said Gen. Carsten Breuer, Germany's chief of defense. "Armed forces must be able to adapt faster, integrate new technologies, and learn at speed. If we fail to adapt, we will not be able to prevail."

 

His Dutch counterpart, Gen. Onno Eichelsheim, sounded a similar alarm. "Technology will change quite fast when you are at war," he said. "If we do not change ourselves, to adaptability and flexibility, then we will lose the first weeks of the war, too much ground and too many people -- and then we will adapt, but it will be too late."

 

Military leaders, governments and defense companies disagree on whether to call the current developments a revolution that warrants a complete overhaul of existing doctrines.

 

Revolution or not, few doubt that the way of waging war is experiencing rapid -- and accelerating -- change. Autonomy using AI has already become a major enabler for the U.S. in its creation of target lists for the air war against Iran. Autonomous Ukrainian-operated drones, including those supplied by German manufacturer Helsing, patrol the highways of occupied southern Ukraine, looking for targets like fuel trucks using AI pattern recognition and then pursuing them on their own once authorized by a human operator.

 

For similar missions, Russia has begun using AI-guided Molniya drones that don't have a human in the loop because Russian forces lack access to Starlink for guidance, Russia just started building Starlink-like system.

 

"Autonomy is just starting to hit the battlefield now, but it will be the bigger game-changer over the next five to 10 years because it is all-encompassing and fundamentally changes what used to be a human-centric battlefield," said Gundbert Scherf, Helsing's co-CEO.

 

Louis Mosley, head of the U.K. and Europe operations for Palantir, a U.S. defense company that was heavily involved in the war on Iran and provides key support for Ukraine's campaign against Russia, said this year is likely to mark a historic pivot.

 

"I wouldn't be surprised if 2026 is remembered for centuries to come as a year in which a major breakthrough in military technology was made -- akin to gunpowder and the like -- which is autonomy," he said.

 

The key feature of the conflict in Ukraine, and likely of other major conflicts to come, is that what used to be cutting-edge weapons and technologies becomes outdated within months. "If you have an adaptive adversary, it's the speed of iteration and the rate of learning that matter, rather than the technology per se," Mosley added.

 

One example of adaptability is Ukraine's new procurement system for drones, which account for over 90% of enemy losses, electronic warfare systems and some other key weapons. It is fundamentally different from how Western militaries, with their centralized defense budgets, operate.

 

Under a system introduced last August, Ukrainian brigades are allocated "e-points" based on how many Russian soldiers and pieces of equipment they successfully hit, with drones providing video footage as proof of these engagements.

 

Converting these "e-points" into money via the country's Delta battlefield-management network, brigades can then quickly purchase new systems directly from manufacturers, through a classified online marketplace. As direct relationships develop, the weapon becomes, in a way, a subscription service rather than an object, constantly updated and redesigned to fit changing battlefield conditions.

 

Drone warfare has also upended basic notions such as air superiority. The U.S. could have full control of the Iranian skies with ultramodern aircraft like the F-35, and yet it couldn't protect its key bases and installations in the Persian Gulf from Iranian drones and missiles in March and April.

 

Instead of treating drones as yet another weapon within the existing military structure, Ukraine has recognized drone warfare as a separate domain. "The domain is time. The point is to shorten the kill chain, removing human and manual steps, which means that on every turn you get to the kill decision, and kill execution, faster than your enemy," said Oleg Rogynskyy, CEO of Uforce, a maker of naval and air drones.

 

Ukraine's fast-paced and innovative approach is hard to replicate for countries not actually involved in conflicts, and therefore not expending large amounts of munitions that need to be replaced.

 

"If we in Europe decide to start manufacturing millions of short-range drones, of the kind that they make in Ukraine, and in eight months they all become obsolete, what shall we do with them?" wondered Mauro Gilli, professor of military strategy and technology at the Hertie School in Berlin.

 

In this environment, the ability to rapidly change alongside technology becomes a crucial component of defense.

 

To keep up, defense manufacturers and military commanders alike have to rethink how they operate -- and what part of the traditional equipment and doctrine fits in the new way of war. "It's still an evolution, but iterations thanks to technology development are going so fast that it may be misinterpreted as a revolutionary approach," said Gen. Michael Claesson, Sweden's chief of defense. "We are not done with legacy, and the legacy will have to follow us, partially, into the future."

 

What kind of legacy is the question. The problem for military commanders is that, even as they seek to adapt to the war of the future, they still need to consider the threats that exist today. For German and other European armed forces, it is first and foremost the possibility of a conflict with Russia.

 

Transformation can't mean putting readiness on hold, Gen. Breuer said, and Germany must modernize its armed forces while maintaining the "fight tonight" capabilities necessary to defend Europe: "We cannot pause deterrence and tell the adversary to come back in 2039."” [1]

 

1. Changing Face of War Poses New Tests for Military Powers --- Flexibility is key as drones, AI and cheap missiles upend how battles are waged. Trofimov, Yaroslav.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 July 2026: A1.