“TOKYO -- Japan's ruling coalition suffered a significant loss in a parliamentary election on Sunday, a setback that risks derailing delicate trade negotiations with the U.S. just weeks before punishing tariffs are set to take effect.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had gambled that his tough stance on trade with President Trump would help cement his shaky grip on power after less than a year in the job and an electoral snub last fall.
Instead, he lost his ruling coalition's majority in an election for the Japanese parliament's upper house, having already lost its lower-house majority in a vote in October.
Polling showed Japanese voters were far more focused on inflation and immigration than they were on U.S. tariffs, a combination that has proved toxic to incumbent parties around the world and propelled the rise of populist alternatives.
A maverick lawmaker who secured the premiership on his fifth attempt in September, Ishiba could now face calls to resign, though he insisted on Sunday that he would stay on as talks with the U.S. are at a critical moment.
His ouster would risk igniting political turmoil just weeks before an Aug. 1 deadline to strike a deal on trade with Washington or accept tariffs of 25% on U.S. imports from Japan. Such a steep increase in duties in Japan's largest foreign market risks tipping its export-heavy economy into recession, economists say.
"We are currently engaged in truly down-to-the-wire tariff negotiations with the U.S.," Ishiba said on Sunday in a television interview as the results were coming in. "I myself have met face-to-face with President Trump twice and spoken with him numerous times on the phone. This is something we mustn't let go to waste."
Ishiba's weakened position means his government may struggle to persuade enough lawmakers to back any agreement it does manage to make with Washington, especially if it involves concessions on sensitive sectors such as agriculture or autos.
The tumult shows how Trump's all-out push to reorder global trade is rattling the domestic politics even of close U.S. allies.
"The world has changed. We all live in Trump's tariff world now, and we all have to adjust to that," said David Boling, director of Japan and Asian trade at Eurasia Group, a consulting firm, and a former U.S. trade negotiator.
In Sunday's vote, Ishiba's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito needed to win at least 50 seats to hang on to their majority in the Japanese parliament's upper house, the less-powerful of the two chambers in Japan's Diet.
Their final tally was 47 seats, according to a projection by results published by public broadcaster NHK.
Sanseito, a fledgling right-wing party that wants to limit immigration and promises to put "Japanese first," finished fourth with 14 seats, an upset in a country where the populist fringe has so far made little headway.
The LDP nonetheless remains the largest bloc and under Japan's parliamentary system Ishiba or his successor can try to stay in power by leaning on smaller parties for support to pass legislation.
On the election stump, Ishiba touted his tough approach to trade talks as standing up for Japan, part of the LDP's broader message that it alone has the experience to navigate global challenges that also include threats from North Korea and China.
"This is a battle for our national interest," Ishiba said in a July 9 speech in the port city of Funabashi, east of Tokyo.
Talks with the U.S. have become bogged down over auto tariffs in particular.
The auto sector is a mainstay of Japan's economy. Tokyo has been seeking relief on a 25% levy Trump imposed on imported cars, which is squeezing profits at automakers including Toyota and Honda.
Japan is also trying to reduce or secure exemptions on "reciprocal" tariffs the White House announced in April that cover almost all U.S. imports.
In a stream of letters to world leaders this month, Trump extended an early July deadline for countries to make deals to avoid those rates to Aug. 1, giving his team more time to secure agreements beyond the handful achieved so far.
His letter to Ishiba raised the planned tariff on Japanese products to 25%, from 24% previously, which many analysts interpreted as a sign of White House frustration with Tokyo.
In his second term, Trump has embraced tariffs as the main tool of his economic and foreign policy and a permanent feature of the U.S. economy.
Countries including the U.K., Indonesia and Vietnam that have reached agreements with the White House have all had to swallow higher tariffs.
Analysts say Japan will need to do so, too, if it is to avoid the punitive rates Trump has floated.
In seeking substantial tariff reductions if not outright relief, Ishiba "misread the room," said William Chou, deputy director of the Japan Chair at the Hudson Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank.
Japanese ruler’s predicament is a warning for West European leaders. One day you stand up against Russia, North Korea and China, second day you are getting kicked into your but out of power. People want you to deal with inflation, not with the Russians.
1. Japan's Ruling Coalition Takes Loss In Election. Douglas, Jason; Yang, Jie. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 July 2025: A1.
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