Death to German Occupiers: VW's New Chief Backs Low Emissions --- Along with a drive to develop more electric vehicles, the new CEO supports electrofuels

"Volkswagen AG's new boss has said he is committed to driving the auto maker's transformation from gasoline-powered cars to electric ones. But Oliver Blume has also been a big backer of a different approach to lower emissions: electrofuels.

Electrofuels are a type of synthetic fuel that produce energy the same way gasoline and diesel do. They combust as part of a conventional power drive. But they are manufactured by mixing water and carbon dioxide to create a low-carbon replacement fuel for diesel or gasoline engines. Right now, they are too expensive to make economically. Some experts believe they will never be as cheap as battery electric cars.

For the industry, though, e-fuels carry one big advantage over battery-powered vehicles: Because they burn the same way as gasoline, they can run in the internal-combustion engines that most of the industry still pumps out. That would allow car makers to continue to make traditional engines, saving them the billions of dollars many have already committed to in their pivot to making electric cars.

Mr. Blume's support for e-fuels is a shift from his predecessor Herbert Diess. His full-throated embrace of Volkswagen's move to battery-powered electric cars left little room for other focuses. Volkswagen's board ousted Mr. Diess late Friday, and elevated Mr. Blume as chief executive. He takes over officially on Sept. 1. Mr. Blume will continue to also serve as CEO for Volkswagen's Porsche brand, one of the car maker's most profitable units.

Mr. Blume has championed Porsche's move to fully electric models while also saying the brand was committed to the pursuit of e-fuels. He has said Porsche was headed down "a double e-path: e-mobility and e-fuels."

That commitment put him on the defensive in Germany over the weekend after a leak of comments he made to workers about his role influencing the current government's support for synthetic fuels. In what has become "Porschegate" this weekend in the German press, several outlets reported that he bragged at a meeting about successfully lobbying the current finance minister to back synthetic fuels. The Porsche meeting in June took place in the midst of a European debate over new rules that would ban production of passenger cars with internal-combustion engines after 2035. Germany successfully lobbied to include a loophole for synthetic-fuel powered cars, though a final decision is pending.

A spokesman for Mr. Blume said the company hadn't exerted any influence on the coalition, and Mr. Blume apologized for the comments over the weekend. "I chose the wrong words at an internal event. It gave the wrong impression" he said.

As head of Porsche, Mr. Blume has been betting that e-fuels could extend the life of some of the company's popular sports cars, especially the 911. Porsche still has no plans to produce a pure electric version of the 911. In April, it invested $75 million in HIF Global LLC, a Santiago, Chile, company that is developing industrial-quality e-fuels.

Mr. Blume's two-track strategy embracing both full electrification and synthetic fuel alternatives is more in line with the views of the German auto industry and the country's powerful IG Metall trade union. Many car executives and worker representatives have been ambivalent about the possible ramifications, including potential job losses, of Volkswagen's push to quickly tilt toward electrification under Mr. Diess.

E-fuels are still a small part of Porsche's development. Analysts say there is no reason to think that Mr. Blume is going to redraw the broad outlines of VW's electric strategy, which has the backing of VW's main investors and stakeholders.

Mr. Diess has been more skeptical about synthetic fuels. He told The Wall Street Journal in June that he believed fully battery-powered vehicles, called BEVs in the industry, would be the most cost-effective technology for years to come. He said both synthetic fuel and hydrogen fuel cells, another alternative to batteries, would ultimately not be able to compete on costs.

Mr. Diess has dismissed alternatives to BEVs as a distraction, but he was often isolated in his view. A number of CEOs of big auto companies such as BMW AG, Toyota Motor Corp. and Stellantis NV have long been critical of phasing out conventional cars completely in favor of BEVs.

In contrast to Mr. Diess, an Austrian native who studied mechanical engineering in Munich and joined VW from BMW in 2015, Mr. Blume has spent his career inside the VW group.

Raised in Braunschweig near VW's Wolfsburg headquarters, Mr. Blume trained at VW's luxury car maker Audi and has held senior positions at Audi and VW's Spanish unit Seat. In 2015, he became CEO of Porsche and led its transformation to a producer of electric and hybrid sports cars, especially the Taycan, which now outsells the company's classic 911.

Mr. Blume has been presented to investors and the public at large as a consensus-seeking leader. Volkswagen's board lost confidence in Mr. Diess in part because of a fraught relationship between him and the company's powerful worker representatives, who sit on the board, over the years, the Journal reported Friday.The board also lost faith in Mr. Diess's operational skills amid trouble at the car maker's software unit, which was tasked with delivering an operating system for its electric cars.

"Team spirit, fairness and passion are decisive for success. This applies to the brands as well as to the company as a whole," Mr. Blume said Friday.

The biggest challenge Mr. Blume faces is fixing Cariad, VW's software unit created in 2020 to build a single computer operating system for all VW vehicles. Brand chiefs have complained that the one-size-fits-all strategy doesn't work and has led to product delays.

VW is also now working on creating a single battery-cell format for all brands. But some of the brands, such as Audi, are pressing to be able to make their own choices.” [1]

Since e-fuels are so expensive, the company got distracted from cheaper battery-based cars. This removes a big competitor of Tesla from the field. German car manufacturing is walking dead from now on. Lucky Musk, lately doing a lot of nonsense: sleeping with stupid spouses of other billionaires and buying stupid companies like Twitter." [1]

 

1. VW's New Chief Backs Low Emissions --- Along with a drive to develop more electric vehicles, the new CEO supports electrofuels
Boston, William. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 July 2022: B.1.   
  

 

Daiktų internetas pradedamas grįsti kiniškais lustais

  „Kinija pirmauja pasaulyje statydama naujas lustų gamyklas, o tai yra žingsnis, siekiant didesnio puslaidininkių apsirūpinimo, dėl kurio kai kurie pirkėjai gali pasikliauti Kinija dėl daugelio pagrindinių lustų, kurių dabar trūksta.

 

    Kai lustų gamintojai visame pasaulyje stengiasi padidinti gamybą ir sumažinti tiekimo trūkumą, jokia šalis nesiplečia greičiau, nei Kinija, kuri per ketverius metus iki 2024 m. planuoja pastatyti 31 pagrindinę puslaidininkių gamyklą, vadinamą fabais, teigia lustų pramonės grupė SEMI.

 

    Tai daugiau, nei 19 Taivano, kuris tuo pačiu laikotarpiu yra antras pagal dydį lustų gaminių gamintojas, ir 12, kurių tikimasi JAV.

 

    Didelė dalis Kinijos projektų yra skirti gaminti lustus su senesnėmis, brandesnėmis technologijomis, o ne pažangiausius procesorius, į kuriuos daugiausia investuoja didžiausios pasaulio puslaidininkių įmonės. Pekinas nesugebėjo prilygti JAV, Taivano ir Pietų Korėjos lustų gamintojams, kai kalbama apie sudėtingesnius puslaidininkius, o Vakarų apribojimai Kinijos prieigai prie pažangių lustų gamybos mašinų tokias Pekino galimybes dar labiau sumažino.

 

    Tai paskatino kai kuriuos Kinijos lustų gamintojus iš naujo kalibruoti savo požiūrį ir daugiau projektų sutelkti į žemesnės klasės lustų technologiją. Analitikų teigimu, tai darydama, Kinija potencialiai gali tapti galiūne tame rinkos segmente. Tai apima daugelį procesorių, kurių paklausa dabar yra didžiausia.

 

    Tai yra darbiniai lustai, tokie, kaip mikrovaldikliai, kurie atlieka daugybę pagrindinių funkcijų, ir maitinimo lustai, kurie plačiai naudojami automobiliuose, išmaniuosiuose telefonuose ir kitoje elektronikoje.

 

    „Jums nereikia pažangių lustų didžiajai daliai elektronikos“, – sakė Hui He, pramonės tyrinėtojo „Omdia“ Šanchajuje tyrimų direktorius.

 

    Dauguma geriausių pasaulio lustų gamintojų vengė daug investuoti į žemesnės klasės lustus, nes pažangiausi procesoriai atneša didesnį pelną ir atspindi pramonės ateitį.

 

    Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., didžiausia pasaulyje sutartinių lustų gamintoja, neseniai investuotojams sakė, kad pažangiausi lustai – turintys 7 nanometrų tranzistorius ir mažesni – sudarė daugiau, nei pusę jos antrojo ketvirčio pajamų. Ji teigė, kad ir toliau sutelks dėmesį į pažangių lustų pardavimą.

 

    Tai palieka didelę rinką Kinijai. Remiantis konsultacinės įmonės International Business Strategies Inc. duomenimis, per 10 metų iki 2030 m. brandžių, 28 nanometrų lustų paklausa turėtų padidėti daugiau, nei tris kartus iki 28,1 mlrd. dolerių. Iki 2025 m. 40% pasaulio pajėgumų gaminti lustus su 28 nanometrų mazgais bus Kinijoje, palyginti su 15% praėjusiais metais, nurodė įmonė.

 

    Dėl to kyla klausimas, ar JAV ir jos sąjungininkės pakankamai investuoja į senesnes lustų technologijas, sakė Peteris Hanbury, konsultacinės įmonės „Bain & Co.“ partneris, besispecializuojantis puslaidininkių srityje.

 

    Kadangi Kinija perima didesnę tiekimo grandinės dalį – ką ji padarė kitoms, mažiau sudėtingoms technologijoms, tai „tikriausiai padidina ne Kinijos gamybos svarbą likusiam pasauliui ir ypač šiems senesniems lustams“, - sakė jis. .

 

    JAV, kurios pastaraisiais metais labai priklausė nuo Pietų Korėjos ir Taivano lustų, pirmenybę teikė vidaus gamybos didinimui. Tačiau pastangos pasiekė stresą. Dviejų partijų įstatymo projektas, pagal kurį būtų atidėta maždaug 52 mlrd. dolerių. Sustabdymas aptemdė JAV investicijų planus daugeliui didelių lustų gamintojų.

 

    Įstatymo projektas pašalino procedūrinę kliūtį Senate praėjusį antradienį ir pirmadienį buvo numatytas balsuoti dėl to, ar jį įgyvendinti, kaip platesnį 280 milijardų dolerių subsidijų ir mokslinių tyrimų finansavimo paketą, skirtą sustiprinti JAV konkurencingumą pažangių technologijų srityje.

 

    Kai kurios lustų kompanijos neseniai pranešė, kad procesorių trūkumas gali mažėti, nes kompiuterių ir išmaniųjų telefonų paklausa vėsta ir kriptovaliutų rinka smunka. Kai kurie analitikai sako, kad Kinija kada nors gali padidinti potencialų perteklinį pajėgumą.

 

    Tačiau vadovai ir kiti analitikai teigia, kad trūkumas toli gražu nesibaigė, o brandesnių lustų paklausa išliks didelė, nes ateinančiais metais plečiasi prie interneto prijungtų prietaisų ir elektrinių transporto priemonių rinka.

 

    Pagrindinis Kinijos tikslas – sumažinti savo priklausomybę nuo lustų iš kitų šalių, ypač didėjant įtampai tarp JAV ir Kinijos. 2017 metais Kinijos lustų gamintojai pagamino apie 13% šaliai reikalingų lustų. Šiais metais tikimasi, kad šis skaičius išaugs iki 26 proc., pasak Handel Jones, International Business Strategies generalinio direktoriaus. Pasak valstybinės žiniasklaidos, Pekinas siekia 2025 m. pagaminti daugiau, nei du trečdalius savo lustų.

 

    Kinija pastangoms skyrė didžiulius išteklius, įskaitant du nacionalinio lygmens fondus, kurie skyrė daugiau nei 50 mlrd. dolerių investuoti į lustų projektus. Vietos valdžia steigia panašius fondus. Subrendusių lustų gamintojai pretenduoja į įmonių atleidimą nuo mokesčių iki 10 metų.

 

    Dalis pinigų buvo švaistomi projektams, kurie niekada nepasiekė gamybos arba susidūrė su kitomis problemomis. Kinijai sunkiai sekėsi rasti pakankamai inžinierių, kurie galėtų vykdyti savo projektus.

 

    Tačiau Pekino vykdoma griežtesnė priežiūra reiškia, kad daugelis Kinijos gaminių, skirtų brandesniems lustams, dabar greičiausiai bus prieinami internete, sakė konsultacijų įmonės „Albright Stonebridge Group“ Kinijos viceprezidentas Paulas Triolo.

 

    Didžiausia Kinijos lustų gamintoja „Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.“ arba SMIC investuoja 8,9 mlrd. dolerių. „Wingtech Technology Co.“ šiais metais atidaro automobilių lustų gamyklą, kurios metinis gamybos tikslas – 400 000 plokštelių.

 

    Kinija supirko daug pasaulyje lustų gamybos įrangos, todėl kai kurie JAV lyderiai ragino išplėsti eksporto kontrolę.

 

    Atrodo, kad kai kurie Kinijos gaminiai orientuojasi į pažangesnes technologijas. „Pengxin Micro Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co.“ stato gamyklą Šendženo šiauriniame pakraštyje. Savo svetainėje „Pengxin Micro“ reklamuoja darbus, nukreiptus į inžinierius, turinčius 14 nanometrų ir mažesnio lygio patirties.“ [1]

 

1. China Makes Big Bets on Basic Chips
Strumpf, Dan; Lin, Liza. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 July 2022: B.4.

Internet of things is getting based on Chinese chips

"China is leading the world in building new chip factories, a step toward achieving more self-sufficiency in semiconductors that could eventually make some buyers reliant on China for many of the basic chips now in short supply.

As chip makers race worldwide to boost production and ease supply shortages, no country is expanding faster than China, which is slated to build 31 major semiconductor factories, known as fabs, during the four years through 2024, according to chip-industry group SEMI.

That exceeds the 19 coming online in Taiwan, the next-biggest builder of chip fabs during the same period, and the 12 expected in the U.S.

A large percentage of China's projects are designed to make chips containing older, more mature technologies, rather than the cutting-edge processors that are the main focus of investment by the world's top semiconductor firms. Beijing has been unable to match U.S., Taiwanese and South Korean chip makers when it comes to more sophisticated semiconductors, and Western restrictions on China's access to advanced chip-making machines have farther set it back.

That has driven some Chinese chip makers to recalibrate their approach to focus more projects on lower-end chip technology. In doing so, China potentially stands to become a powerhouse in that segment of the market, according to analysts. That includes many of the processors in highest demand now.

These include workhorse chips such as microcontrollers, which perform myriad basic functions, and power-supply chips, which are used widely in automobiles, smartphones and other electronics.

"You don't need advanced chips for the bulk of electronics," said Hui He, a research director at the industry researcher Omdia in Shanghai.

Most of the world's top chip makers have eschewed investing heavily in lower-end chips because cutting-edge processors bring in higher margins and represent the industry future.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., the world's largest contract chip maker, told investors recently that the most advanced chips -- those with 7-nanometer transistors and smaller -- accounted for more than half of its second-quarter revenue. It said it would stay focused on selling advanced chips.

That leaves a big market for China. Demand for mature, 28-nanometer chips is expected to more than triple to $28.1 billion in the 10 years to 2030, according to International Business Strategies Inc., a consulting firm. By 2025, 40% of the world's capacity to produce chips with 28-nanometer nodes will be in China, up from 15% last year, the firm said.

That raises the question of whether the U.S. and its allies are investing enough in older chip technologies, said Peter Hanbury, a partner at consulting firm Bain & Co. who specializes in semiconductors.

As China takes over more of the supply chain -- something it has done for other, less sophisticated technologies -- it "probably raises the importance of non-China production for the rest of the world and specifically for these older chips," he said.

The U.S., which became heavily reliant on South Korean and Taiwanese chips in recent years, has made boosting domestic production a priority. But the effort has hit snags. A bipartisan bill that would set aside roughly $52 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S. has moved slowly as lawmakers spar over non-chip-related measures tied to the bill. The holdup has clouded U.S. investment plans for a number of big chip manufacturers.

The bill cleared a procedural hurdle in the Senate this past Tuesday and was set for a vote Monday on whether to advance it as part of a broader $280 billion package of subsidies and research funding aimed at beefing up U.S. competitiveness in advanced technology.

Some chip companies have recently signaled that processor shortages might be easing as PC and smartphone demand cools and the cryptocurrency market slumps. Some analysts say China could someday add to potential overcapacity.

But executives and other analysts say shortages are far from over, and demand for more mature chips is expected to stay robust as the market for internet-connected gadgets and electric vehicles expands in the coming years.

China's main goal is to reduce its dependence on other countries for chips, especially as U.S.-China tensions rise. In 2017, Chinese chip makers produced about 13% of the chips the country needs; this year, that figure is expected to rise to 26%, according to Handel Jones, chief executive of International Business Strategies.Beijing aims to produce more than two-thirds of its own chips in 2025, according to state media.

China has dedicated huge resources to the effort, including two national-level funds that set aside more than $50 billion to invest in chip projects. Local governments set up similar funds. Producers of mature chips qualify for corporate tax waivers of up to 10 years.

Some money was wasted on projects that never achieved production or ran into other problems. China has struggled to find enough engineers to staff its projects.

But tougher oversight from Beijing means many Chinese fabs for more-mature chips now appear likely to come online, said Paul Triolo, vice president for China at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge Group.

China's top chip producer, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp., or SMIC, is investing $8.9 billion in a wafer fab with local authorities in southeastern Shanghai focused on 28-nanometer chips. Wingtech Technology Co. is this year launching an automotive-chip factory with an annual production target of 400,000 wafers.

China has bought up much of the world's chip-making equipment, triggering calls from some U.S. leaders to expand export controls.

Some Chinese fabs appear to be targeting more-advanced technology. Pengxin Micro Integrated Circuit Manufacturing Co. is building a factory on Shenzhen's northern edge. On its website, Pengxin Micro is advertising for engineers with expertise at the 14-nanometer level and below." [1]

1. China Makes Big Bets on Basic Chips
Strumpf, Dan; Lin, Liza. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 July 2022: B.4.