Attrition Takes Toll on Russia, West --- Costs mount on both as military operation, sanctions and Moscow's tactics drive up inflation and rates

"Beyond Moscow's military campaign is an economic war between Russia, on one side, and the U.S. and Europe on the other. That conflict is becoming a test of who can endure the most strife.

So far, Russia appears to be suffering more, analysts say, with its economy set to contract sharply this year, the cost of living soaring and hundreds of businesses, from McDonald's Corp. to French car maker Renault SA, fleeing.

But the U.S. and Europe are also incurring severe costs, mainly through higher energy prices that are likely to rise this winter, analysts say. Joblessness is expected to mount, too, as central banks respond to those inflation pressures by raising interest rates.

The coming months will prove crucial in determining who gains leverage in this economic war, analysts say, with Russia struggling to find imports for its military and economy, and Western nations maneuvering to replace Russian energy.

The sanctions will cost roughly $1 trillion in global output this year, according to a recent report from the Economist Intelligence Unit, a U.K.-based research group. The global economy is now projected to grow 2.8% instead of its prewar forecast of 3.9%, with the biggest losses in output suffered by Italy, Germany and France, the EIU says.

Russia is "testing the West and the West is responding in kind," said Tymofiy Mylovanov, a University of Pittsburgh associate professor of economics and former Ukrainian government official. "It's a war of attrition for the moral resolve of Russia and the West," he said.

This is a closer outcome than what many expected at the outset, when almost all the economic firepower was trained on Russia.

The U.S. and its allies hit Russia with sanctions unprecedented in scope: restrictions on transactions with its central bank, travel, trade and foreign investment, among other measures. The aim, a U.S. official said at the time, was to "deliver overwhelming costs to Russia" while avoiding "unwanted spillovers back to the U.S. or the global economy."

In April, Russia's central bank projected gross domestic product would fall 8% to 10% this year; its governor has since said the contraction will likely be smaller, citing more recent data.

The Institute of International Finance, a Washington-based trade group, projects Russia's output will fall 15% for the year as a whole from 2021. JPMorgan Chase & Co. forecasts a much lower but still sharp 3.5% drop. In either scenario, Russia's contraction would be more severe than the 3.1% decline in global output in 2020, the first full year of the pandemic, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Russia's official inflation rate soared to 15.9% in June -- far higher than in the U.S. and Europe -- government figures show. Analysts anticipate that unemployment will rise later this year.

"Russia is definitely feeling the pinch here -- especially the Russian middle class who are used to being able to do all kinds of stuff they can't do now," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a U.K.-based economic-research consulting firm.

But the sanctions are also exacting a toll on the West, analysts say. Trade disruptions caused by the sanctions, combined with investor fears of an eventual shortage of energy, have pushed up prices for oil, natural gas and other commodities.

That has helped drive inflation to multidecade highs, leading central banks of the U.S., Australia, Canada and the U.K. to raise interest rates and the European Central Bank to prepare to do so. Barclays PLC analysts expect the eurozone to slip into recession in the fourth quarter of this year.

Meanwhile, economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal expect the U.S. to grow just 0.7% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, a downgrade from their 3.3% projection in January.

That outlook could slip further if the energy crisis deepens. If Russian gas supplies are shut off completely, Germany's output would likely fall 5% this year compared with current projections, according to the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank.

The sanctions in some ways have hurt the countries that imposed them and helped Russia. Though Russia is exporting fewer barrels of oil, a higher price for a barrel means the country is expected to rake in more revenue than initially budgeted, according to a recent research note from JPMorgan analysts.

High inflation is contributing to political strife in the West. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi tendered his resignation last week because of differences over how to respond to the sanctions on Russia. French President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in an election driven by voters' concerns about the rising cost of living. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned this month under pressure from Conservative Party lawmakers who worried scandals would impede the government's ability to respond to inflation.

European plans to embargo Russian oil later this year could send energy prices up even more sharply and push the U.S. and Europe into recession, JPMorgan said.

That is one reason U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has pushed to cap the price on Russian oil.

"I think what we want to do is keep Russian oil flowing into the market to hold down global prices and try to avoid a spike that causes a world-wide recession and drives up oil prices," Ms. Yellen said in June. "But absolutely, the objective is to limit the revenue going to Russia," she added.” [1]

The biggest problem of a predator (the West) while attacking (with sanctions) a big and strong prey (Russia) is getting big injuries of the predator itself. This seems what is happening in reality. 

 

In particular, Boris Johnson appears to have been thrown out of power by the inflation caused by the very sanctions he himself pushed through. Don't dig a hole for someone else, because you yourself will fall into it...

 

1. World News: Attrition Takes Toll on Russia, West --- Costs mount on both as military operation, sanctions and Moscow's tactics drive up inflation and rates
Mitchell, Josh. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 18 July 2022: A.6.   
  

Maisto įmonės persitvarko, kad kovotų su nusikalstamumu

„Restoranai ir bakalėjos parduotuvės teigė, kad, reaguodami į nusikaltimus, atnaujina veiklą, kai kurie operatoriai riboja darbo valandas, daugiau išleidžia saugumui ir visiškai uždaro parduotuves.

 

    Praėjusią savaitę „Starbucks Corp.“ pranešė visam laikui uždaranti 16 JAV kavinių po to, kai darbuotojai pranešė apie incidentus, susijusius su narkotikų vartojimu ir kitais sutrikimais, ir, greičiausiai, uždarys daugiau. Įprastų maitinimo įstaigų tinklas Noodles & Co. susidūrė su narkotikų vartojimu tualetuose tam tikrose rinkose ir moko darbuotojus, kaip reaguoti, sakė generalinis direktorius Dave'as Boennighausenas. Prekybos centrų milžinė Kroger Co. pernai organizuotas vagystes pirmą kartą įtraukė į pelno maržas slėgusių veiksnių sąrašą.

 

    Per vidinį forumą „Starbucks“ būstinėje trečiadienį laikinasis generalinis direktorius Howardas Schultzas sakė, kad parduotuvės buvo pelningos, tačiau bendrovė jas uždaro dėl darbuotojų saugos problemų.

 

    „Mes susiduriame su dalykais, kuriems parduotuvės nebuvo sukurtos“, – sakė M. Schultzas. „Klausome savo žmonių ir uždarome parduotuves“. Jis sakė, kad vietos valdžios institucijos turi daugiau nuveikti, kovodamos su nusikalstamumu ir psichinėmis ligomis, nes išaugo poreikis spręsti saugumą.

 

    Į maistą orientuotos įstaigos ir vartotojai vis labiau nerimauja dėl nusikalstamumo, nes JAV vartotojai vėl pradėjo apsipirkti parduotuvėse ir pietauti ne tik po to, kai vyriausybės ir įmonės panaikino Covid-19 apribojimus. Iš 1 005 anksčiau šį mėnesį apklaustų suaugusiųjų 44 % teigė, kad jie labiau bijo būti viešumoje dėl blogo elgesio ir didėjančio smurto, palyginti su 39 % kovo mėn., rodo nacionalinės maisto paslaugų tyrimų bendrovės Lisa W. Miller & Associates LLC internetinė apklausa.

 

    Nuo pandemijos pradžios JAV daugėja smurtinių nusikaltimų, o miestai, įskaitant Sietlą, Los Andželą, Čikagą ir Niujorką, praneša apie susišaudymų ir žudynių padidėjimą. Žmogžudysčių skaičius taip pat išaugo kaimo vietovėse. Vietos pareigūnai ir teisėsauga, be kitų veiksnių, atkreipia dėmesį į su pandemija susijusį stresą, ginklų platinimą ir išaugusį alkoholio pardavimą.

 

    Nors smurtiniai nusikaltimai restoranuose ir bakalėjos parduotuvėse tebėra nedidelė bendro JAV skaičiaus dalis, pastaraisiais metais incidentų padaugėjo, rodo Federalinio tyrimų biuro statistika.

 

 Sunkesnių užpuolimų restoranuose skaičius nuo 2018 iki 2020 metų išaugo 60 proc., rodo FTB duomenys, o bakalėjos parduotuvėse per šį laikotarpį padaugėjo 73 proc.

 

    Becky Mulligan sakė, kad šį mėnesį atsiliepė į vieno iš savo Mod Super Fast Pizza Holdings LLC parduotuvės vadovų skambutį, kuris pasakė, kad ginkluotas plėšikas pataikė į vieną iš Bellevue, Vašingtone įsikūrusio tinklo parduotuvių.

 

    M. Mulligan, vyresnioji 520 parduotuvių picų tinklo operacijų viceprezidentė, sakė, kad per pastaruosius šešis mėnesius jai teko reaguoti į daugiau smurto, vagysčių ir plėšimų, kurie paveikė tinklą, ypač kilus dujų kainoms ir ekonomikai atvėsus.

 

    „Atrodo, kad restoranai patiria streso, daugiau, nei anksčiau“, – sakė ji. Maždaug prieš šešias savaites ginkluotam užpuolikui įėjus į vieną iš Mod's West Coast parduotuvių, vadybininkė stojo priešais jauną įgulos narį, dirbantį prie kasos, sakė M. Mulligan.

 

    „Mod“ savo parduotuvėse įdiegia daugiau panikos mygtukų ir siūlo emocinės paramos išteklius darbuotojams po incidento. Darbuotojams nurodyta niekada nepalikti atvirų užpakalinių restoranų durų, o įmonė riboja valandas, jei darbas naktį jaučiasi nesaugus, sakė ji.

 

    Kai kurie „Burger King“ ir „McDonald's Corp.“ franšizės gavėjai teigė, kad jiems teko susidurti su nusikaltimais automobilių stovėjimo aikštelėse ir parduotuvėse slampinėjančiais žmonėmis, ypač naktimis.

 

    Prekybininkų teigimu, parduotuvių saugumo problemos prekybos centruose dėl vagysčių ir benamystės pastaraisiais metais tapo didesniu iššūkiu. Jie teigė samdantys daugiau apsaugininkų ir užrakinę į vagystes linkusius gaminius, o kartu mokantys darbuotojus, kaip valdyti konfliktus.

 

    Kosta Drososas, Čikagos Baktauno kaimynystėje esančios Fresh Market Place generalinis direktorius, sakė, kad parduotuvėje jau seniai kovojama su nusikalstamumu ir benamiais, prašančiais klientų pinigų ar produktų. Jis sakė, kad prieš šešis mėnesius jis ir kai kurie darbuotojai vienos parduotuvės darbuotojų vonios kambaryje rado vyrą, susileidusį heroiną, ir išlydėjo.

 

    „Nėra nieko neįprasto“, – sakė J. Drososas.

 

    Jis sakė, kad „Fresh Market“ visus darbuotojus apmoko saugos klausimais ir moko juos išvengti konfrontacijų ir sušvelninti konfliktus. M. Drosos teigimu, anksčiau šį mėnesį parduotuvės vadovybė aptarė, ar vadovai turėtų nešiotis ginklus parduotuvėje, ir nusprendė, kad kol kas to nedarys.

 

    JAV bakalėjos pardavėjai teigė, kad stengiasi apsaugoti darbuotojus ir operacijas, reaguodami į per pastaruosius kelerius metus didėjantį nusikaltimų ir su sauga susijusių incidentų skaičių jų parduotuvėse, sakoma bakalėjos prekybos grupės FMI liepos mėnesio ataskaitoje. Apie 72 % iš 18 maisto mažmenininkų, atstovaujančių daugiau, nei 12 000 FMI apklaustų parduotuvių, teigė, kad turi planų kovoti su smurto prevencija, o 88 % teigė, kad yra pasirengę susidoroti su plėšimais.

 

    Dougas Bakeris, prižiūrintis pramonės santykius FMI, sakė, kad mažmenininkai jau seniai susiduria su nusikalstamumu ir sutrikimais, tačiau atvejų padaugėjo, nes vis daugiau žmonių susiduria su augančia infliacija ir griežtesniu biudžetu.

 

    „Good Food Holdings LLC“ generalinis direktorius Neilas Sternas sakė, kad benamiai stovyklauja prie kai kurių maisto prekių tinklo parduotuvių, kartais persekioja darbuotojus ir klientus arba vagia paruoštą maistą. Kompaniją, kuriai Vakarų pakrantėje valdo „New Seasons Market“ ir „Bristol Farms“ tinklai, taip pat užklupo organizuotos vagystės iš parduotuvių, kurios paprastai paveikia bendrąsias prekes ir nereceptinius vaistus.

 

    „Turėjome incidentų, kai turėjome uždaryti parduotuves kuriam laikui arba anksti uždaryti parduotuves“, – sakė J. Sternas. Atsakydamas į tai, bakalėjos pardavėjas pasamdė daugiau apsaugos, sakė jis, ir kai kuriais atvejais pakeitė parduotuvių vidaus išdėstymą, kad potencialiems vagims jis nebūtų tokis pažįstamas.

 

    Vadovų teigimu, vagystės yra didėjanti JAV mažmenininkų problema, iš dalies dėl to, kad organizuoto nusikalstamumo grupuotės vagia iš parduotuvių, o vėliau parduoda prekes internetu.

 

    Kroger, CVS Health Corp. ir kiti didieji mažmenininkai nurodė, kad vagystės yra didėjantis spaudimas jų verslui.“ [1]

1. Food Businesses Revamp to Fight Crime
Haddon, Heather; Kang, Jaewon. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 18 July 2022: B.1.

Food Businesses Revamp to Fight Crime

"Restaurants and grocery stores said they are revamping operations in response to crime, with some operators limiting hours, spending more on security and closing stores entirely.

Starbucks Corp. last week said it was permanently closing 16 U.S. stores after workers reported incidents related to drug use and other disruptions, and would likely close more. Casual-dining chain Noodles & Co. encountered drug use in bathrooms in certain markets, and is training workers on how to respond, Chief Executive Dave Boennighausen said. Supermarket giant Kroger Co. last year listed organized theft among the factors pressuring its profit margins for the first time.

During an internal forum at Starbucks's headquarters Wednesday, interim CEO Howard Schultz said the stores were profitable, but the company was closing them because of employees' safety concerns.

"We are facing things that the stores weren't built for," Mr. Schultz said. "We are listening to our people and closing stores." He said local governments must do more to fight crime and mental illness as the need to address safety has grown.

Food-oriented establishments and consumers are airing increased concerns over crime as U.S. consumers have resumed shopping in stores and dining out, after governments and businesses lifted Covid-19 restrictions. Of 1,005 adults surveyed earlier this month, 44% said they were more fearful to be in public because of bad behavior and rising violence, up from 39% in March, according to a national online survey by food-service research firm Lisa W. Miller & Associates LLC.

Violent crime has been on the rise in the U.S. since the onset of the pandemic, with cities including Seattle, Los Angeles, Chicago and New York reporting a surge in shootings and killings. Murder rates have also soared in rural areas. Local officials and law enforcement point to pandemic-related stress, a proliferation of guns and increased alcohol sales, among other factors.

While violent crimes in restaurants and grocery stores remain a small part of the overall U.S. total, incidents have increased in recent years, according to Federal Bureau of Investigation statistics. The number of aggravated assaults that took place in restaurants increased by 60% from 2018 to 2020, the FBI data showed, and the number in grocery stores increased by 73% during the period.

Becky Mulligan said she answered a call this month from one of her Mod Super Fast Pizza Holdings LLC store managers, who said an armed robber hit one of the Bellevue, Wash.-based chain's stores.

Ms. Mulligan, senior vice president of operations for the 520-store pizza chain, said she has had to respond to more incidents of violence, theft and robberies affecting the chain over the past six months, particularly as gas prices have risen and the economy has cooled.

"There seems to be a layer of stress going into the restaurants, more than it used to," she said. About six weeks ago, after an armed gunman entered one of Mod's West Coast stores, a manager put herself in front of a young crew member working at the cash register, Ms. Mulligan said.

Mod is installing more panic buttons in its stores, and offering emotional support resources to employees after an incident. Employees are instructed to never leave the back doors of restaurants open, and the company limits hours if working at night feels unsafe, she said.

Some Burger King and McDonald's Corp. franchisees said they have had to deal with crime in parking lots and people loitering in stores, particularly at night.

Store safety issues at supermarkets, driven by theft and homelessness, have become a bigger challenge in recent years, merchants say. They said they are hiring more security guards and locking up theft-prone products, while coaching employees on how to manage conflicts.

Kosta Drosos, general manager of Fresh Market Place in Chicago's Bucktown neighborhood, said the store has long dealt with crime, and homeless people asking customers for money or products. He said he and some employees six months ago found a man shooting up heroin in one store's staff bathroom, and escorted him out.

"Nothing is out of the ordinary anymore," said Mr. Drosos.

Fresh Market gives all employees safety training and coaches them to avoid confrontations and defuse conflicts, he said. Earlier this month, Mr. Drosos said, store management discussed whether managers should carry weapons in the store, and decided they wouldn't for now.

U.S. grocers have said they are working to protect staff and operations in response to what some said are a growing number of crime and safety-related incidents in their stores over the past few years, grocery trade group FMI said in a July report. About 72% of 18 food retailers representing over 12,000 stores surveyed by FMI said they have plans in place to deal with violence prevention, while 88% said they are ready to deal with robberies.

Doug Baker, who oversees industry relations at FMI, said retailers have long dealt with crime and disruptions, but instances have increased as more people face rising inflation and tighter budgets.

Good Food Holdings LLC Chief Executive Neil Stern said homeless people camp outside of some of the grocery chain's stores, sometimes harassing employees and customers or stealing prepared food. The company, which owns New Seasons Market and Bristol Farms chains on the West Coast, has also been struck by organized shoplifting that typically affects general merchandise and over-the-counter medicine.

"We've had incidents where we had to close stores for a period of time, or close stores early," Mr. Stern said. In response, the grocer has hired more security, he said, and in some cases changed layouts of stores so that they aren't as familiar to potential thieves.

Theft is a growing problem for U.S. retailers, executives said, partly as organized crime rings steal from stores, then sell goods online. 

Kroger, CVS Health Corp. and other major retailers have cited theft as a growing pressure on their businesses." [1]

1. Food Businesses Revamp to Fight Crime
Haddon, Heather; Kang, Jaewon. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 18 July 2022: B.1.