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2023 m. sausio 17 d., antradienis

Economist on interest rates and the highest paying Lithuanians: what we had before was abnormal

 "Although base interest rates in the euro zone are growing at the same rate for everyone, in the end, Lithuanians' pockets suffer the most. Economist Marius Dubnikovas says that this is due to the fact that Lithuanians usually choose variable interest rates. However, he explains that the former zero interest rates were not the norm, but rather today the market is back to "normal interest".

 

     "There are several aspects. In Lithuania, we have such a uniqueness that most of our loans are with variable interest rates. This means that when interest rates change, all market interest rates change - EURIBOR has a direct impact, depending on its maturity.

 

     In Western countries, especially the United States, there is an increase in fixed interest rates or even fixed interest rates for the entire period. This is where the differences come in. If someone took out a loan 10 years ago, or even three years ago, and fixed their interest, then, obviously, this interest does not change.

 

     I wonder why people don't go for fixed rates, which is because there is no supply in our market to fix for say 10 or 20 years. This is where the huge difference appears," he said.

 

     According to the economist, one more reason why, in the end, we pay more can be considered the common love of Lithuanians for real estate.

 

     "This means there is a huge demand for loans, and when it is there, it works from the other side as well - banks' margins are, admittedly, a little higher," said M. Dubnikovas.

 

     He explained that, on average, loans cost residents about increased 2.7 thousand Eur. per year.

 

     "The burden will fall on the shoulders of people who have chosen variable interest." Some have already understood this, some have already received larger bills, and some will receive and understand this.

 

     Comparing last year's loan installments with this year's installments, they often differ by 25 percent, and are even increased by a quarter. That pressure, it will be.

 

     Considering the fact that the average loan in Lithuania was 90 thousand. EUR, this is an interest increase of 3%, which has already happened, which amounts to about 2.7 thousand EUR per year or approximately EUR 240 per month," he calculated.

 

     According to the economist, the Bank of Lithuania, which oversees the market, took action and regulated that it was not possible to borrow more than the amount that requires paying more than 40 percent of income contributions, when servicing our loans.

 

     "This means that no more than 40%  of of our income goes to all loans to be be serviced, which makes our market safer <...>

 

     What else the Bank of Lithuania can do is to discuss whether we should have mechanisms where people can fix their loans before the repayment period and have a very clear forecast of how much they will have to pay," he suggested.

 

     Speaking about EURIBOR, the economist explained that most of the interest rate hike has already passed.

 

     "Most of the jump has already happened. If we look at the USA, which really demonstrates how interest rates can move, it currently has 4.5%. base interest already in the middle of the year, it is predicted that the number may reach 5%, but it will start to decrease from the middle of the year", he said and predicted that the EURIBOR should rise for the rest of this year and reach 4%.

 

     "We are returning to normal interest rates as far as EURIBOR is concerned, 2.8-3 percent. in the longer term is the median. "What we had before that was abnormal, because money cost nothing and a whole generation of people grew up on it," said the economist.

 

Fixed interest rates increase banks' risk, so such loans are usually more expensive. Since we are still not paid European wages, and the prices in the common market are already European, that is why we are poor. Those fixed interest rates are too expensive for us. Therefore, we take risks and take variable interest rate. Now the crisis is here, we will suffer because of those variable interest rates.

 


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