Collision Involving Our Galaxy Grows Less Likely

 

"It turns out that looming collision between our Milky Way and the Andromeda galaxy might not happen after all.

 

Astronomers reported Monday that the probability of the two spiral galaxies' colliding is less than previously thought, with a 50-50 chance within the next 10 billion years.

 

"As it stands, proclamations of the impending demise of our galaxy seem greatly exaggerated," the Finnish-led team wrote in a study in Nature Astronomy.

 

The latest forecast may be moot for humanity.

 

"We likely won't live to see the benefit," lead author Till Sawala of the University of Helsinki said in an email. The sun is on course to run out of energy and die in 5 billion years or so, after growing so big it will engulf Mercury, Venus and possibly Earth. Even if it doesn't swallow Earth, the planet will be left a burned ball, its oceans boiled away.

 

Sawala's international team relied on the latest observations by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-surveying spacecraft to simulate possible intergalactic scenarios. Both the Milky Way and neighboring Andromeda had collided with other galaxies in their ancient past, and earlier theories put a collision resulting in a new elliptical galaxy dubbed Milkomeda as probable if not inevitable. Some had it happening within 5 billion years.

 

For this new study, the scientists relied on updated galaxy measurements to factor in the gravitational pull on the Milky Way's movement through the universe. They found that the effects of the neighboring Triangulum galaxy increased the likelihood of a merger, while the Large Magellanic Cloud decreased those chances. While uncertainty lingers over the position, motion and mass of all these galaxies, the scientists ended up with 50-50 odds of a collision within 10 billion years.

 

More work is needed to predict with accuracy, the researchers say. Further insight should help scientists better understand what's happening among galaxies even deeper in the cosmos.” [1]

 

 Don't worry, Musk is already working on this problem.

 

1. U.S. News: Collision Involving Our Galaxy Grows Less Likely. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 June 2025: A3.